银河期货尿素日报-20250724

Group 1: Report Information - Report Title: Urea Daily Report, July 24, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Zhang Mengchao [7] - Contact: zhangmengchao_qh@chinastock.com.cn [7] Group 2: Market Review - Futures Market: Urea futures fluctuated and closed at 1785 (-3/-0.17%) [3] - Spot Market: Factory prices remained stable, with trading volume mediocre. Prices in different regions ranged from 1620 - 1820 yuan/ton [3] Group 3: Important Information - Urea Daily Output: On July 24, it was 19.52 million tons, an increase of 0.25 million tons from the previous workday and 1.25 million tons from the same period last year [4] - Urea Operating Rate: It was 84.29%, a 1.47% increase from 82.82% in the same period last year [4] Group 4: Logic Analysis - Market Sentiment: General in the market, with factory quotes in mainstream areas showing a hidden decline. Different regions had different trends in quotes [5] - Supply: Some devices were under maintenance, with daily output dropping to around 19 million tons, still at the highest level in the same period [5] - Demand: The new India tender price was announced, with a large price difference between domestic and foreign markets. However, the overall demand showed a downward trend, and the export port inspection policy relaxation had limited impact on the domestic spot [5] - Inventory: Urea production enterprise inventory continued to decline to around 86 million tons but remained high [5] - Outlook: In the export quota system, export volume is expected to increase significantly in the third quarter, and the demand side will gradually improve, so it is advisable to go long on dips [5] Group 5: Trading Strategies - Single - side: Go long on dips, do not chase [6] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [6] - Options: Sell put options on dips [9]