银河期货煤炭日报-20250724

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Name: Energy Chemical R & D Report - Coal Daily (July 24, 2025) [2] - Researcher: Zhang Mengchao [6] - Data Source: Galaxy Futures [11][15] Group 2: Market Review - Spot Market Prices: On July 24, port market trading atmosphere was average, with traders' quotes remaining firm. 5500 - kcal coal was quoted at 650 - 660 yuan/ton, 5000 - kcal at 590 - 600 yuan/ton, and 4500 - kcal at 520 yuan/ton in the port market. Different regions had their own price ranges for non - electric enterprise coal [3]. Group 3: Important Information - Power Generation Installed Capacity: As of the end of June, the national cumulative power generation installed capacity was 3.65 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 18.7%. Solar power installed capacity was 1.1 billion kilowatts (up 54.2% year - on - year), and wind power was 570 million kilowatts (up 22.7% year - on - year). From January to June, the national power generation equipment's average utilization hours were 1504, 162 hours less than the previous year [4]. Group 4: Logic Analysis - Supply: Pit - mouth prices continued to rebound, and coal mines resumed production. The coal mine start - up rates in the main coal - producing areas of Shanxi, Shaanxi, and Inner Mongolia increased. As of July 23, the coal mine start - up rate in Ordos was 78%, and in Yulin was 46%. The daily coal output in Ordos and Yulin increased by about 4 million tons, and the domestic supply was generally loose [5]. - Import: The domestic and import markets showed different trends. The domestic coal price was basically stable, while import traders continued to cut prices to sell, and the actual transaction price in the market decreased [5]. - Demand: Currently, hydropower was weak, the power plant load increased, daily consumption rose, and inventory decreased. Some power plants reported that market coal procurement was hindered by railway capacity constraints and rising coal prices. Non - electric cement start - up rate was low, while the restart of methanol and urea maintenance devices led to high - level operation of coal - to - methanol and coal - to - urea start - up rates, and the demand for chemical coal was generally good [5]. - Inventory: Shipping volume started to increase. The average daily volume of the Datong - Qinhuangdao line was 1.1 million tons, and the number of approved wagons by Huhehaote Railway Bureau was around 25 trains. Port inventory continued to decline. As of July 24, the inventory in Bohai Rim ports dropped to 25.35 million tons, a decrease of 6 million tons from the high level but still relatively high. Coastal power plant daily consumption increased seasonally, but inventory reduction was slow, and inland power plant inventory was still high [5]. - Outlook: In late July, the coal output in the main producing areas increased, the start - up rates in Ordos and Yulin rose, and the overall supply was relatively abundant. Power plant inventory reduction was slow, and due to the impact of imported coal, power plants only maintained rigid demand procurement. Traders actively shipped, port inflow increased, and port inventory continued to decline. With the continuous high - temperature weather across the country, power plant daily consumption would continue to increase seasonally, and coal consumption would return to the same - period level. Coastal power plant inventory was lower than the same period, and they continued rigid demand procurement. The port FOB price rebounded continuously. The start - up rate of coal - chemical products in the pit - mouth area was high, the demand for chemical coal was good, and the import volume decreased significantly. As the southern temperature rose, the power plant replenishment rhythm accelerated. It was expected that coal prices would continue to rise firmly [5]. Group 5: Related Charts - Charts include national port inventory, Bohai Rim port inventory, downstream port inventory, East China port inventory, South China port inventory, Jiangnei port inventory, key power plant inventory, pit - mouth platform inventory, coastal 8 - province power plant inventory, coastal 8 - province power plant daily consumption, coastal 8 - province power plant available days, inland 17 - province power plant inventory, inland 17 - province power plant daily consumption, inland 17 - province power plant available days, power plant inventory, and power plant daily consumption from 2022 - 2025 [8][11][15]