华创农业7月USDA农产品跟踪报告：USDA下调全球玉米产量预测，上调全球大豆产量预测

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for the agricultural sector [1] Core Insights - The USDA has adjusted global corn production forecasts downward while increasing global soybean production forecasts [1] Summary by Sections Corn - Global corn production for the 2024/25 year is revised down to 126.4 million tons, a decrease of 0.18% from previous estimates, while consumption remains stable at 127.6 million tons [9][12] - The global corn stock-to-use ratio is projected to decline to 21.33%, down by 0.25 percentage points [9][12] - In China, corn production is forecasted to remain stable at 29.5 million tons, with total demand also stable at 32.1 million tons, leading to a stock-to-use ratio of 55.81%, down from previous estimates [11][12] Soybeans - Global soybean production is expected to rise to 42.8 million tons, an increase of 0.20%, with consumption also up to 42.5 million tons, reflecting a 0.24% increase [20][21] - The global soybean stock-to-use ratio is projected to increase to 29.65%, up by 0.11 percentage points [20][21] - In China, soybean production is forecasted to remain stable at 21 million tons, with consumption at 13.3 million tons, resulting in a stock-to-use ratio of 32.62%, down by 1.13 percentage points [26][27] Wheat - Global wheat production is expected to remain stable at 80.9 million tons, while consumption is projected to rise to 81.1 million tons, leading to a stock-to-use ratio of 32.26%, down by 0.19 percentage points [32][33] - In China, wheat production is forecasted to remain stable at 14.2 million tons, with a stable stock-to-use ratio of 83.07% [37][38] Rice - Global rice production is adjusted down to 54.2 million tons, a decrease of 0.057%, while consumption is projected to rise to 54.2 million tons [43][44] - The global rice stock-to-use ratio is expected to decline to 34.58%, down by 0.14 percentage points [43][44] - In China, rice production is forecasted to remain stable at 14.6 million tons, with consumption also stable, leading to a stock-to-use ratio of 71.23%, down by 0.66 percentage points [49][51]