资产配置日报：麻了-20250724

Domestic Market Performance - The capital market's risk appetite has been reignited, leading to significant increases in the stock market and certain commodities, while the bond market shows signs of distress [2] - In the domestic commodity market, prices of coking coal, lithium carbonate, glass, and polysilicon have risen over 5%, with coking coal hitting the limit up for the fourth consecutive trading day [2][3] - The futures prices of coking coal, polysilicon, and lithium carbonate are significantly higher than their spot prices, indicating a continued premium in the futures market [2][3] Industry Insights - The "anti-involution" movement is gaining traction, with various industries announcing price increases and regulatory measures to combat excessive competition [4] - The China Coking Industry Association has held multiple meetings to discuss price increases for coking coal, with significant price hikes observed in the futures market [3] - There is a divergence in market expectations for different commodities, with some showing strong near-term performance while others reflect weaker long-term demand [3] Stock Market Trends - The stock market is experiencing rotation among popular sectors, with significant gains in Hainan, rare earths, innovative pharmaceuticals, and small metals [5] - The Shanghai Composite Index and other major indices have shown steady upward trends, indicating strong market sentiment [5][10] - The technology sector continues to perform well, with the STAR Market indices showing notable increases, suggesting a shift of trading funds towards technology stocks [10] Bond Market Dynamics - The bond market is facing pressure from unexpected tightening of liquidity, with the central bank's actions leading to a net withdrawal of funds [6][8] - The bond market has experienced multiple negative factors, including a lack of demand for long-term bonds and significant redemptions from bond funds [7] - The recovery of the bond market is contingent on the central bank's liquidity support and market risk appetite [8] Investment Opportunities - The report highlights potential investment opportunities in sectors benefiting from the "anti-involution" trend, particularly in commodities experiencing price increases [2][4] - The technology sector is identified as a key area for investment, driven by ongoing policy support and strong market narratives [10] - The upcoming macroeconomic events, including policy meetings and trade negotiations, are expected to influence market dynamics and present further investment opportunities [11]