Report Title - Focus on the end - of - month Politburo meeting, Fixed - income Weekly Report (2025.07.14 - 2025.07.18) [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Interest rate bonds: Overall decline in Treasury bond yields and widening of term spreads. From July 11 to July 18, 2025, the central bank conducted 18,115.00 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, with 5,597.00 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net injection of 12,518.00 billion yuan. Most inter - bank funding prices rose, while exchange - market funding prices declined overall. The net financing of the primary market decreased, and local government bond issuance increased. Treasury bond yields declined, and the 10Y - 1Y term spread widened from 29.51BP to 31.62BP [3][15][34]. - Credit bonds: Most credit bond yields declined. From July 14 to July 20, 2025, the primary market issuance of credit bonds increased month - on - month. Company bonds had the largest number of issuances, and medium - term notes had the highest issuance amount. Newly issued bonds were mainly AAA - rated, and the issuance was mainly for 3 - 5 years. In the secondary market, most urban investment bond yields and medium - and short - term note yields declined [4][46][56]. - Major asset weekly observation: During July 11 - July 18, 2025, US stock indexes showed slight divergence. Most US Treasury yields declined, the US dollar index strengthened, and non - US currencies weakened. Oil prices declined, and gold prices showed divergence [6][62][74]. Summary by Directory 1. Interest Rate Bonds: Overall Decline in Treasury Bond Yields and Widening of Term Spreads 1.1 Liquidity Observation: Net Liquidity Injection and Divergence in Funding Prices - From July 11 to July 18, 2025, the central bank conducted 18,115.00 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, with 5,597.00 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net injection of 12,518.00 billion yuan. Most inter - bank funding prices rose, and exchange - market funding prices declined overall [15]. 1.2 Primary Market Issuance: Decrease in Net Financing and Increase in Local Government Bond Issuance - From July 14 to July 20, 2025, the primary market issuance of interest rate bonds was 6,564.93 billion yuan, with a total bond repayment of 5,132.25 billion yuan and a net financing of 1,432.69 billion yuan. Treasury bonds raised 2,433.10 billion yuan, policy - based financial bonds raised 1,620.00 billion yuan, and local government bond issuance increased, raising 2,511.83 billion yuan [21]. 1.3 Secondary Market Trading: Decline in Treasury Bond Yields and Widening of Term Spreads - From July 11 to July 18, 2025, the yields of 1 - year, 3 - year, 5 - year, 7 - year, and 10 - year Treasury bonds declined by 2.12BP, 1.15BP, 0.36BP, 1.10BP, and 0.01BP respectively, and the 10Y - 1Y term spread widened from 29.51BP to 31.62BP. Most yields of China Development Bank bonds declined, and the 10Y - 1Y term spread widened from 22.30BP to 23.82BP [34]. 2. Credit Bonds: Most Credit Bond Yields Declined 2.1 Primary Market Issuance: Month - on - Month Increase in Issuance - From July 14 to July 20, 2025, 1,005 new credit bonds were issued in the primary market, with a total issuance scale of 13,429.38 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 3,423.50 billion yuan. The total repayment was 11,522.43 billion yuan, and the net financing was 1,906.95 billion yuan. Company bonds had the largest number of issuances, and medium - term notes had the highest issuance amount. Newly issued bonds were mainly AAA - rated, and the issuance was mainly for 3 - 5 years. The financial industry had the largest number of issuances [46]. 2.2 Secondary Market Trading: Most Credit Bond Yields Declined - From July 11 to July 18, 2025, most yields of urban investment bonds declined, with the 7 - year AA - rated bonds having the largest decline of 5.56BP. The yields of medium - and short - term notes declined overall, with the 10 - year AA - rated notes having the largest decline of 4.99BP [56]. 2.3 One - Week Review of Credit Default Events - From July 14 to July 20, 2025, the credit bonds of one enterprise defaulted [61]. 3. Major Asset Weekly Observation 3.1 Slight Divergence in European and American Stock Indexes - From July 11 to July 18, 2025, the three major US stock indexes showed slight divergence. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.07% weekly, the S&P 500 Index rose 0.59% weekly, and the Nasdaq Composite Index rose 1.51% weekly. European stock indexes also showed slight divergence, and Asian - Pacific stock indexes had mixed performances [62]. 3.2 Most US Treasury Yields Declined - From July 11 to July 18, 2025, the yields of 1 - year, 3 - year, 5 - year, and 7 - year US Treasury bonds declined by 1.00BP, 2.00BP, 3.00BP, and 1.00BP respectively, while the 10 - year US Treasury yield rose 1.00BP. The 10Y - 1Y term spread changed by 2.00BP to 36.00BP [68]. 3.3 Strengthening of the US Dollar Index and Weakening of Non - US Currencies - From July 11 to July 18, 2025, the US dollar index rose 0.60% weekly, and non - US currencies weakened. The pound sterling against the US dollar fell 0.61% weekly, the euro against the US dollar fell 0.55% weekly, the US dollar against the Japanese yen rose 0.96% weekly, and the US dollar against the Chinese yuan rose 0.03% weekly [70]. 3.4 Decline in Oil Prices and Divergence in Gold Prices - From July 11 to July 18, 2025, the COMEX gold futures price fell 0.31% weekly, and the London spot gold price rose 0.09% weekly. The Brent crude oil price fell 1.53% weekly, and the WTI crude oil price fell 1.62% weekly [74]. 4. Investment Recommendations - Currently, the bond market shows the characteristics of "stable short - end and increasing long - end disturbances." The central bank maintains a loose liquidity environment, and short - term interest rates are resilient. However, the continued economic recovery in the second quarter may suppress long - end bullish sentiment. The effectiveness of the "anti - involution" policy needs to be verified by July's high - frequency data. If the situation continues to improve, long - end interest rates will be under pressure; otherwise, long - bond yields may continue to challenge previous lows. In the short term, the short - duration coupon strategy is still preferred, and long - end bonds can wait for trading opportunities when economic data exceed expectations. For credit bonds, the strategy of extending the duration of high - grade bonds is still effective. For convertible bonds, due to the significant influence of the equity market sentiment, an equilibrium allocation is recommended [7][77].
固收周报：关注月末中央政治局会议-20250724
Yong Xing Zheng Quan·2025-07-24 15:38