Report Summary 1. Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The soybean market is in a state of low valuation and oversupply, with no clear directional driver yet. The domestic soybean import cost is oscillating and slightly rising due to a single - supply source. The soybean or protein supply is still in surplus, and the domestic soybean meal market has a complex situation of multiple long and short factors [2][4]. - The palm oil market is influenced by various factors. The US biodiesel policy and the expected B50 policy in Indonesia support the price, but the high - level production forecast, high production in producing areas, and other factors limit the upside space [6][9]. - The domestic sugar market may face increased import supply pressure in the second half of the year, and the Zhengzhou sugar price is likely to continue to decline if the external market price does not rebound significantly [12]. - The cotton market has shown a partial rebound, but the downstream consumption is average, and the potential issuance of sliding - scale import quotas is a negative factor [15]. - The egg market is currently stable with limited trading. The short - term price is guided by the spot price and lacks a clear trend, while the post - festival contracts after September may offer short - selling opportunities [18][19]. - The pig market has a short - term divergence between futures and spot prices. The market has expectations of capacity reduction in the future, but the hedging pressure is high. Attention should be paid to the pressure after the seasonal rebound [22]. 3. Summary by Category Soybean/Meal - Important Information: North American weather is favorable, limiting the upside space of US soybeans. The domestic soybean meal futures prices fell at night on Thursday, and the spot prices dropped significantly. The downstream inventory days are higher than the same period last year. The domestic soybean import cost is affected by a single - supply source and is oscillating slightly upward [2]. - Trading Strategy: The soybean meal market has multiple long and short factors. It is recommended to try long positions at the lower end of the cost range and pay attention to the crushing profit and supply pressure at the higher end, waiting for new drivers from the Sino - US tariff situation and the supply side [4]. Oil - Important Information: The high - frequency export data of Malaysian palm oil shows different trends in different periods. The production in July has increased. The MPOB expects an increase in the production and export of Malaysian palm oil in 2025, while the GAPKI expects a decrease in Indonesia's palm oil exports. The domestic palm oil is oscillating, and the net long positions of foreign - funded institutions in the three major oils have changed slightly [6]. - Trading Strategy: The palm oil price is rising due to the optimistic sentiment in the commodity market. The US biodiesel policy supports the price, but the upside space is limited by factors such as high - level production expectations, high production in producing areas, and uncertain RVO rules. It should be regarded as an oscillating market [9]. Sugar - Important Information: The Zhengzhou sugar futures price rose slightly on Thursday. The spot prices of sugar in different regions showed different trends. The sugarcane yield and sugar content in the central - southern region of Brazil decreased in June [11]. - Trading Strategy: The domestic sugar market is in a good import profit window, and the import supply pressure may increase in the second half of the year. If the external market price does not rebound significantly, the Zhengzhou sugar price is likely to continue to decline [12]. Cotton - Important Information: The Zhengzhou cotton futures price continued to oscillate on Thursday. The spot price of cotton in Xinjiang increased slightly. The weather in major cotton - producing areas is favorable, and the expected yield per unit of new cotton in 2025 is expected to increase [14]. - Trading Strategy: Although the Zhengzhou cotton price has rebounded, the downstream consumption is average. The potential issuance of sliding - scale import quotas in July - August is a negative factor [15]. Egg - Important Information: The egg prices in most regions are stable, with only a few adjustments. The inventory of eggs in the market is small, the demand in the sales areas is stable, and the trading volume is average [17][18]. - Trading Strategy: High temperatures have reduced the egg - laying rate, and the supply pressure has eased. The short - term price is guided by the spot price and lacks a clear trend. The post - festival contracts after September may offer short - selling opportunities [19]. Pig - Important Information: The domestic pig prices continued to fall on Thursday. The market supply is sufficient, and the terminal consumption is weak [21]. - Trading Strategy: There is a short - term divergence between futures and spot prices in the pig market. The market has expectations of capacity reduction in the future, but the hedging pressure is high. Attention should be paid to the pressure after the seasonal rebound [22].
五矿期货农产品早报-20250725
Wu Kuang Qi Huo·2025-07-25 00:38