综合晨报：美日协议详细版本公布，美7月PMI创半年新低-20250725

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The US economy shows mixed data with manufacturing facing stagflation risks but services remaining resilient. Market risk preferences are generally high, and various asset prices are affected by factors such as trade agreements, policy expectations, and supply - demand fundamentals [13][21]. - The European Central Bank maintains interest rates and is in a wait - and - see mode, which impacts the short - term trends of the euro and the US dollar index [16][17]. - In the commodity market, different commodities have different trends and investment outlooks based on their own supply - demand situations, policy impacts, and other factors [3][28][30]. Summary by Directory 1. Financial News and Comments 1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - Eurozone central bank interest rates meet market expectations, and the ECB does not provide forward - looking guidance due to unclear tariff policies. The US 7 - month Markit manufacturing PMI drops to 49.5, while the service and composite PMIs reach new highs since December last year. Gold prices are weak in a shock, and short - term gold lacks upward momentum and remains in a shock state [12][13][14]. 1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Trump's allies sue the Fed, and the ECB maintains interest rates. The US dollar index is expected to fluctuate in the short term as the euro gets a short - term boost [15][16][18]. 1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The US and Japan reach a detailed agreement, and South Korea plans to use corporate investment in the US as a bargaining chip. The US stock market is driven by performance, and the short - term market risk preference remains high but may face callback risks [19][20][21]. 1.4 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The Shanghai Composite Index stands above 3600 points, and it is recommended to allocate assets evenly [22][24][25]. 1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducts reverse repurchase operations with a net withdrawal of funds. The market risk preference is strong, and short - term treasury bond futures should be treated with a defensive mindset [26][27]. 2. Commodity News and Comments 2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - The USDA weekly export sales report meets expectations. CBOT soybeans continue to fluctuate, and it is recommended to maintain a shock - based approach and pay attention to weather and Sino - US relations [28][29]. 2.2 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - Issues such as insufficient US sugar production, drought in Russia, and Indian sugar exports are present. Zhengzhou sugar is expected to fluctuate mainly, and attention should be paid to the resistance level of 5900 [30][32][33]. 2.3 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - Forest fires in Indonesia may affect palm oil production, and palm oil prices may rise further [34]. 2.4 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - Steel inventories show a slight decrease, and steel prices are supported by policies but may face risks. It is recommended to be cautious in the short term and pay attention to hedging opportunities [35][37][38]. 2.5 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The port inventory of cassava starch decreases, and the price difference with corn starch slightly widens. Starch enterprises may continue to face losses, and the operating rate is expected to remain low [39][40]. 2.6 Agricultural Products (Corn) - Corn consumption and inventory of deep - processing enterprises both decline. New - crop short positions can be held, and attention should be paid to rebound and additional - position opportunities [41][42]. 2.7 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - Coal prices are expected to remain strong due to policy and seasonal factors, and attention should be paid to whether the price can reach 700 yuan [43]. 2.8 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - Anglo American's iron ore production and sales in Q2 show differences. Iron ore prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [44][45]. 2.9 Agricultural Products (Pigs) - New Wufeng's pig sales are reported. The pig market has a complex supply - demand situation, and it is necessary to be cautious about chasing long positions [46][47][48]. 2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - Issues such as increased maintenance costs of the Panama copper mine and US copper tariffs are present. Copper prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [49][52][53]. 2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - There are plans to revise the energy - consumption standard for polysilicon. It is recommended to gradually take profits on long positions and consider short - term light - position shorting through options [54][55]. 2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - Industrial silicon inventory decreases, and production capacity may increase. It is recommended to take a short - term bullish view and pay attention to the resumption of production by large factories [56][57]. 2.13 Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - LME nickel inventory decreases. Nickel prices may follow the non - ferrous sector to be strong in the short term and decline in the medium term. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and look for short - selling opportunities at high prices [58][59]. 2.14 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Tesla's new plans and supply - side uncertainties affect lithium carbonate prices. It is recommended to wait and see [60][61]. 2.15 Energy and Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - The weekly commodity volume of LPG decreases, and inventory shows different trends. LPG prices are expected to fluctuate weakly [62][63][64]. 2.16 Energy and Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - The CEA price fluctuates slightly, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short term [65][66]. 2.17 Energy and Chemicals (Natural Gas) - US natural gas inventory increases. NYMEX natural gas is expected to fluctuate in the short term [67][68]. 2.18 Energy and Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The price of caustic soda in Shandong rises locally. The upward momentum of the caustic soda futures contract may weaken [69][70]. 2.19 Energy and Chemicals (Pulp) - The price of imported wood pulp is mostly stable. Investors should be aware of the risks of pulp being hyped by funds [71]. 2.20 Energy and Chemicals (PVC) - The price of PVC powder mostly rises. Investors should be aware of the risks of PVC being hyped by funds [72][73]. 2.21 Energy and Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - Bottle chip factories are implementing production - cut plans. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of expanding processing fees by buying low and rolling [74][75]. 2.22 Energy and Chemicals (Soda Ash) - Soda ash inventory decreases. The short - term futures price may fluctuate greatly, and it is recommended to operate carefully [76][77][78]. 2.23 Energy and Chemicals (Float Glass) - The price of float glass rises. It is recommended to operate cautiously on a single side and focus on the arbitrage strategy of buying glass and shorting soda ash [79][80]. 2.24 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rates) - US port container imports decline for two consecutive months. It is recommended to pay attention to short - selling opportunities in the short term [81][82].