Core Insights - The report highlights the rebound in global stock markets during Q2, with significant gains in US and German markets, raising concerns about potential pullbacks in Q3 due to high valuations and risk sentiment [2][8] - The report emphasizes the potential for a revaluation of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange (HKEX), with a projected PE range of 30 to nearly 70 times, driven by fundamentals and liquidity [10][12] - The analysis of the computer industry indicates a low fund allocation, suggesting opportunities for increasing investments in Hong Kong IT and financial sectors [12][14] Market Performance Summary - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3606 points, with a 1-day increase of 0.65% and a 5-day increase of 5.41% [1] - The Shenzhen Composite Index closed at 2203 points, with a 1-day increase of 1.19% and a 5-day increase of 8.89% [1] - Large-cap indices showed a 1-month increase of 6.22%, while small-cap indices outperformed with a 1-month increase of 9.14% [1] Industry Performance Summary - The energy metals sector experienced a significant 1-day increase of 7.55% and a 1-month increase of 19.66% [1] - The small metals sector saw a 1-month increase of 30.16%, indicating strong performance [1] - Conversely, the precious metals sector faced a 1-day decline of 2.19% and a 1-month increase of only 2.28% [1] Investment Opportunities - The report suggests that the HKEX is positioned for growth, with a projected net profit of HKD 165 billion, 179 billion, and 188 billion for 2025-2027, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 26%, 9%, and 5% respectively [10][12] - The computer industry is highlighted for its potential growth, with AI remaining a key focus area, and a notable shift towards high-end products in the domestic market [12][14] - The photovoltaic industry is entering a new phase with policies aimed at reducing competition and improving pricing structures, which could lead to increased profitability for key players [14][16]
申万宏源证券晨会报告-20250725