五矿期货早报有色金属-20250725

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The market sentiment is relatively positive due to the expected Fed rate cut and the upcoming release of growth - stabilization plans for key industries in China. However, different metals have different price trends based on their supply - demand fundamentals [1][3]. - For copper, the raw material supply is tight, but the rebound of copper prices is limited due to the off - season demand and the approaching implementation of US copper tariffs [1]. - For aluminum, although the low inventory and positive sentiment may push up the price, the inventory is expected to accumulate, and the price is likely to follow the general trend [3]. - For lead, the supply is relatively loose, and the consumption is suppressed by anti - dumping tariffs, so the domestic lead price is expected to be weak [4]. - For zinc, in the long - term, the price is bearish due to the abundant supply and rising inventory, but in the short - term, it may show a strong and volatile trend [6]. - For tin, the overall fundamentals are weak due to the expected resumption of production in Myanmar and weak demand [7]. - For nickel, the demand is weak, and the price of the ore and the whole industry chain is expected to decline [8]. - For lithium carbonate, short - term capital games bring high uncertainty, and it is recommended to observe carefully [10]. - For alumina, the over - capacity pattern is difficult to change in the short - term, and it is recommended to wait and see [13]. - For stainless steel, the supply - demand structure is optimizing, but the oversupply situation has not been fundamentally improved [15]. - For cast aluminum alloy, the supply and demand are both weak, and it is difficult for the price to rise continuously [18]. Summary by Metal Copper - Price: LME copper closed down 0.8% to $9,854/ton, and SHFE copper closed at 79,290 yuan/ton. The expected operating range for SHFE copper is 78,800 - 80,000 yuan/ton, and for LME copper 3M is $9,750 - 9,950/ton [1]. - Inventory: LME inventory decreased by 50 to 124,775 tons, and SHFE copper warehouse receipts increased by 0.1 to 16,000 tons [1]. - Market: The domestic spot import loss widened to about 400 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap copper price difference narrowed to 1,300 yuan/ton [1]. Aluminum - Price: LME aluminum closed up 0.27% to $2,646/ton, and SHFE aluminum closed at 20,755 yuan/ton. The expected operating range for domestic SHFE aluminum is 20,600 - 20,900 yuan/ton, and for LME aluminum 3M is $2,620 - 2,680/ton [3]. - Inventory: Domestic aluminum ingot inventory increased, and LME aluminum inventory increased by 0.3 to 448,000 tons [3]. - Market: The spot premium in East China decreased, and the aluminum bar processing fee increased but the sales volume was not ideal [3]. Lead - Price: SHFE lead index closed up 0.31% to 16,897 yuan/ton, and LME lead 3S rose to $2,033/ton. The domestic lead price is expected to be weak [4]. - Inventory: SHFE lead futures inventory was 60,000 tons, and LME lead inventory was 263,200 tons [4]. - Market: The refined - scrap lead price difference was - 25 yuan/ton, and the import loss was - 851.74 yuan/ton [4]. Zinc - Price: SHFE zinc index closed up 0.20% to 22,999 yuan/ton, and LME zinc 3S rose to $2,875.5/ton. In the long - term, the price is bearish, and in the short - term, it may be strong and volatile [6]. - Inventory: SHFE zinc futures inventory was 11,900 tons, and LME zinc inventory was 115,300 tons. The domestic social inventory decreased to 92,700 tons [6]. - Market: The TC index of imported zinc concentrate increased significantly, and the monthly output of refined zinc in China increased by 36,000 tons to 585,000 tons in June [6]. Tin - Price: The tin price declined slightly. The expected operating range for domestic tin is 250,000 - 280,000 yuan/ton, and for LME tin is $31,000 - 35,000/ton [7]. - Supply: The resumption of tin mines in Myanmar is progressing, but domestic smelters are facing raw material supply pressure [7]. - Demand: The consumption is in the off - season, and the downstream orders are weak [7]. Nickel - Price: The nickel price fluctuated narrowly. It is recommended to try short - selling lightly. The expected operating range for SHFE nickel is 115,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton, and for LME nickel 3M is $14,500 - 16,500/ton [8]. - Supply: The price of nickel ore is expected to decline, and the production of nickel iron decreased slightly [8]. - Demand: The demand for stainless steel is weak, and the downstream smelters have no motivation to expand production [8]. Lithium Carbonate - Price: The MMLC spot index rose 6.17% to 74,832 yuan. It is recommended to observe carefully due to high short - term uncertainty [10]. - Supply: The domestic lithium carbonate production decreased by 2.5% to 18,630 tons this week [10]. - Inventory: The inventory increased by 550 tons to 143,170 tons [10]. Alumina - Price: The alumina index rose 2.34% to 3,406 yuan/ton. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and consider short - selling later. The expected operating range for the domestic main contract is 3,200 - 3,600 yuan/ton [13]. - Supply: The supply - side policy implementation needs further observation, and the over - capacity pattern is difficult to change in the short - term [13]. - Inventory: The futures warehouse receipts were 6,900 tons, at a historical low [13]. Stainless Steel - Price: The stainless steel main contract closed at 12,935 yuan/ton. The supply - demand structure is optimizing, but the oversupply situation persists [15]. - Supply: The steel mills' production cut has tightened the market supply [15]. - Demand: The demand shows signs of recovery, and the inventory is expected to continue to decline slightly [15]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - Price: The AD2511 contract declined 0.1% to 20,135 yuan/ton. The price is difficult to rise continuously [18]. - Supply - demand: Both supply and demand are weak in the off - season, but the cost support has strengthened [18]. - Inventory: The domestic regenerated aluminum alloy ingot inventory increased to 32,600 tons [18].