化工板块各品种老旧装置统计及分析（下）

Group 1: Summary of the Report - The report focuses on the analysis of old chemical production facilities in various sectors, including polyester, rubber, urea, and polyolefin industries. It aims to evaluate the potential impact of the renovation or elimination of these old facilities on supply and demand [5][6]. - The report divides the old facilities as those with a production operation time of over 20 years. It analyzes the capacity, proportion, and characteristics of these facilities in different chemical products [5][6]. - The report provides specific conclusions for each chemical product, including the potential impact on supply and demand, the probability of renovation or elimination, and investment strategies [6][7][8]. Group 2: Polyester Industry Chain PX and PTA - PX: The total capacity of PX facilities put into operation 20 years ago (inclusive) is 306 million tons, accounting for 7.0%. The in - production capacity is 223 million tons, accounting for 5.1%, all belonging to the two major state - owned oil companies. The short - term possibility of these facilities shutting down is low [14]. - PTA: Facilities put into operation before 2005 have been shut down for years and eliminated. The impact of the policy on PTA supply can be ignored [14]. MEG - The total capacity of MEG facilities put into operation over 20 years ago is nearly 142 million tons, with the in - production capacity of 96 million tons, accounting for 3.3%. These facilities are mainly ethylene - based and mostly from the two major state - owned oil companies. The policy's impact on ethylene glycol supply is limited [17][18]. PR - The total capacity of PR facilities put into operation 20 years ago is 96 million tons, accounting for 4.4%, and the in - production capacity is 80 million tons, accounting for 3.7%. The expected impact on overall production is about 2% [21]. PF - The total capacity of PF facilities put into operation over 20 years ago is about 346 million tons, accounting for 33.4%. Small - scale factories may be eliminated first, while large - scale enterprises may continue to operate through transformation [23][24]. Group 3: Rubber Industry Chain Butadiene - The total capacity of butadiene facilities put into operation over 20 years ago is 130.5 million tons, accounting for 19%. The elimination of these facilities is difficult. The supply - demand pattern is expected to be loose in 2025, but the policy may change the situation [30][32]. Cis - Polybutadiene Rubber - The total capacity of cis - polybutadiene rubber facilities put into operation over 20 years ago is 34 million tons, accounting for 17%. The policy may lead to a decrease in supply [33][34]. Tires - The proportion of old tire facilities has decreased significantly. The recent policies have little impact on the tire industry, but rising raw material prices may pose risks to non - exporting tire manufacturers [35][36]. Group 4: Urea Industry - The capacity of urea facilities put into operation over 20 years ago is 1517 million tons/year, accounting for 20%. The policy is expected to have a significant impact on the urea industry, and the supply - demand pattern may shift from surplus to tight balance [38]. - The main production processes of old urea facilities are natural gas and coal - based fixed - bed gasification. The fixed - bed process is at a disadvantage in terms of cost and environmental protection [42]. Group 5: Polyolefin Industry PE - The capacity of PE facilities put into operation over 20 years ago is 547 million tons/year, accounting for 14%. These facilities have problems such as small scale, outdated technology, and high environmental and energy consumption pressure. The policy may help the industry move towards a balanced supply - demand pattern [48][50]. PP - The capacity of PP facilities put into operation over 20 years ago is 476 million tons/year, accounting for 10%. The policy is expected to relieve the over - capacity pressure in the polyolefin industry [55][65].