工业硅、多晶硅日评：多头情绪旺盛，价格走势坚挺-20250725

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Industrial silicon: Driven by the continuous push of the macro "anti - involution" sentiment, the industrial silicon futures and spot prices have rebounded in resonance, and the market has gradually stabilized above 9,500 yuan/ton. It is expected to maintain a firm short - term trend. However, after the price rebound, the selling hedging pressure above the market may increase, which may stimulate production - cut enterprises to resume production. The actual production dynamics of silicon enterprises should be continuously monitored [1]. - Polysilicon: Since the end of June, driven by the supply - side reform expectation and spot price increase, the polysilicon market has continued to rise, reaching a new high since listing. It is expected to maintain a relatively strong consolidation in the short term, but the risk of chasing long positions is high, and cautious operation is recommended. The price transmission situation in the industrial chain and the warehouse receipt registration situation should be continuously monitored [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon - Price Changes: The average price of industrial silicon non - oxygenated 553 (East China) increased by 1.03% to 9,850 yuan/ton, and the average price of 421 (East China) industrial silicon increased by 0.98% to 10,350 yuan/ton. The closing price of the futures main contract increased by 1.73% to 9,690 yuan/ton [1]. - Inventory Situation: On July 24, the total social inventory of industrial silicon in major regions was 53.5 tons, a decrease of 1.2 tons compared with last week. Among them, the inventory in ordinary social warehouses remained unchanged at 12 tons, and the inventory in social delivery warehouses (including unregistered warehouse receipts and spot parts) decreased by 1.2 tons to 41.5 tons [1]. - Supply and Demand Analysis: On the supply side, large northern factories have production - cut plans with no resumption news yet. The southwest production area is about to enter the wet season, with lower power costs and a steady increase in enterprise operation, but the resumption speed is slow. After offsetting the increase and decrease, the supply may decrease. On the demand side, polysilicon enterprises maintain a production - cut situation, and some silicon material factories plan to resume production in July, which will bring some demand increase. The organic silicon industry has a strong willingness to cut production to support prices, but the demand is weak, and the actual transaction price has declined. The operation of domestic monomer enterprises is mixed, and the overall operation has declined, further weakening the demand for industrial silicon. Silicon - aluminum alloy enterprises purchase as needed, and the downstream has insufficient willingness to stock up at low levels [1]. Polysilicon - Price Changes: The price of N - type dense material remained unchanged at 45 yuan/kg; the price of N - type re -投料 remained unchanged at 46 yuan/kg; the price of N - type mixed material remained unchanged at 43.5 yuan/kg; the price of N - type granular silicon remained unchanged at 44 yuan/kg. The closing price of the futures main contract increased by 7.36% to 53,765 yuan/ton [1]. - Supply and Demand Analysis: On the supply side, polysilicon enterprises maintain a production - cut situation, and some silicon material factories may have new production capacity put into operation. After offsetting the increase and decrease, the output is expected to increase slightly, with the July output expected to approach 110,000 tons. On the demand side, the photovoltaic market is generally weak, with an increase in the inventory of silicon wafers and silicon materials. Recently, due to the expected increase in polysilicon prices, the price of downstream silicon wafers has followed the increase, and the transaction atmosphere has improved. However, the demand was greatly overdrawn by the rush to install in the first half of the year, and the terminal market is still weak [1].