生猪日报：期价震荡调整-20250725

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The report suggests that the price of live pigs will experience a period of oscillatory adjustment. The supply of live pigs is expected to increase gradually until December, which will limit the upward movement of prices. However, the price difference between 150Kg pigs and standard pigs is expected to continue to strengthen seasonally, which will support the price to some extent. If the farming sector continues to reduce the weight of pigs or keeps the weight stable, the price may be adjusted weakly in an oscillatory manner. For the 09 contract, which has a large premium over the spot price, a light - short position can be considered, but attention should be paid to macro - emotional impacts [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Dynamics - On July 24, the registered warehouse receipts of live pigs were 284 lots. The short - term decline space of the spot price is limited, and attention should be paid to whether the weight of live pigs continues to decrease. The market sentiment of the main contract (LH2509) on that day was still acceptable, with a position of about 60,000 lots. The highest price was 14,495 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 14,205 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 14,365 yuan/ton [2]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - From the perspective of the inventory of breeding sows, the supply of live pigs is expected to increase month by month from March to December, but the increase is limited. According to the piglet data, the slaughter volume of live pigs will increase overall in the second and third quarters of 2025. On the demand side, consumption in the second half of the year is better than that in the first half. Historically, the fat - standard price difference may strengthen in an oscillatory manner. The short - side logic includes slow and difficult weight reduction in the farming sector, continuous increase in subsequent slaughter volume, and limited demand support for pig prices before the third - quarter peak season. The long - side logic includes the room for increasing frozen - product inventory, strong spot - price toughness, limited increase in subsequent slaughter volume, and the approaching of the peak consumption season in the third and fourth quarters [3]. 3.3 Strategy Suggestions - The view is oscillatory adjustment. The core logic is that based on sow and piglet data, the slaughter volume of live pigs may increase month by month until December, which will limit price increases. The price difference between 150Kg pigs and standard pigs is expected to continue to strengthen, which will support the price. If the farming sector continues to reduce the weight of pigs or keeps the weight stable, the price may be adjusted weakly in an oscillatory manner. For the 09 contract with a large premium over the spot price, a light - short position can be considered, but risk prevention should be noted [4]. 3.4 Market Overview - On July 24, 2025, compared with the previous day, the 01 contract decreased by 90 yuan to 14,550 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.61%; the 03 contract increased by 155 yuan to 13,730 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.14%; the 05 contract increased by 360 yuan to 14,210 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.6%; the 07 contract remained unchanged at 14,010 yuan/ton; the 09 contract decreased by 225 yuan to 14,365 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.54%; the 11 contract decreased by 90 yuan to 14,210 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.63% [6]. 3.5 Key Data Tracking - The content provides data on the closing prices of futures contracts in the past 180 days, the basis of the live - pig main contract in the Henan region, the price differences between the 09 - 11 contracts, and the 11 - 01 contracts, with data sources from Yongyi Consulting, Wind, and Rongda Futures [14].