宝城期货豆类油脂早报-20250725

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall view of soybean meal futures prices is influenced by market sentiment and fluctuates significantly. In the short - term, it may turn to a volatile trend, while the short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are all bullish with a volatile bias [5]. - Palm oil futures prices are boosted by the slight rebound of international oil prices and the oil - meal arbitrage. In the short - term, it benefits from biodiesel demand and international crude oil prices, and the intraday and medium - term views are bullish with a volatile bias [8]. 3. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal (M) - Time - frame Views: Short - term: bullish; Medium - term: bullish; Intraday: bullish with a volatile bias; Reference view: bullish with a volatile bias [5][7] - Core Logic: After the concentrated exit of long - position funds, the futures price dropped significantly. The market is waiting for the result of the US trade negotiations with other countries, which will affect the export prospects of US soybeans. Before the final result is announced, the US soybean futures price will remain volatile. The price of soybean meal futures is more affected by market sentiment and fluctuates violently. In the short - term, it may turn to a volatile trend [5]. Palm Oil (P) - Time - frame Views: Short - term: bullish with a volatile bias; Medium - term: volatile; Intraday: bullish with a volatile bias; Reference view: bullish with a volatile bias [7][8] - Core Logic: The slight rebound of international oil prices boosts the entire oil and fat sector. As the variety with the strongest energy attribute in the oil and fat sector, palm oil is the first to be affected and shows strength. In addition, it is favored by funds due to the oil - meal arbitrage. In the short - term, it benefits from biodiesel demand and international crude oil prices. Attention should also be paid to the possible adverse impact of the Indonesian fire on palm oil production in some areas [8]. Other Information - Time Cycle Definition: Short - term is within one week; Medium - term is from two weeks to one month (based on the previous day's night - session closing price) [7] - Calculation of Price Fluctuation: For varieties with night - session trading, the starting price is the night - session closing price; for those without, it is the previous day's closing price. The ending price is the day - session closing price of the current day. The definition of price trends is: a decline of more than 1% is considered weak; a decline of 0 - 1% is considered weakly volatile; an increase of 0 - 1% is considered strongly volatile; an increase of more than 1% is considered strong. The views of strongly/weakly volatile only apply to intraday views, and no distinction is made between short - term and medium - term [2][3][4]