中辉期货原油日报-20250725

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Cautiously bearish [1][5][6] - LPG: Cautiously bullish [1][7][9] - L: Cautiously bullish [1][10][12] - PP: Cautiously bullish [1][14][15] - PVC: Cautiously bullish [1][17][18] - PX: Cautiously bullish [1][20][21] - PTA/PR: Cautiously bullish [1][23][24] - Ethylene glycol: Cautiously bullish [1][26][27] - Glass: Cautiously bullish [2][30][31] - Soda ash: Cautiously bullish [2][32][33] - Caustic soda: Cautiously bullish [2][35][36] - Methanol: Cautiously bullish [2][37] - Urea: Cautiously bullish [2] - Asphalt: Cautiously bearish [2] - Propylene: Cautiously bullish [3] 2. Core Views of the Report - Crude oil: Strong reality and weak expectation, focus on OPEC's production increase and US production changes. Oil prices are in the second half of the peak season, with increasing supply - surplus pressure and a downward trend [1][5][6] - LPG: Narrow - range oil price fluctuations, recovering downstream chemical demand, and a short - term rebound in liquefied gas [7][8][9] - L: Driven by policy expectations, with short - term volatility biased upwards following policy expectations and long - term high production limiting the rebound space [10][11][12] - PP: Driven by policy expectations, following market sentiment for a rebound, with short - term volatility biased upwards and long - term third - quarter production pressure limiting the upside [14][15] - PVC: The "anti - involution" trading continues, with short - term sentiment and cost supporting the bottom, but the weak fundamental pattern limits the rebound space [17][18] - PX: Supply and demand are in a tight balance, and with macro - policy positives, focus on the opportunity to go long on dips [20][21] - PTA/PR: Supply - side pressure is expected to increase with new device production, and demand is weakly bottoming out. Short - term "anti - involution" policies bring supply - side positives [23][24] - Ethylene glycol: Domestic and foreign device changes are small, demand is in the off - season, and there is support from a strong basis and low inventory. Pay attention to the opportunity to go long on dips [26][27] - Glass: Fundamental improvement, with short - term macro - industrial policy expectations providing support, and the price center of the futures market moving upwards [30][31] - Soda ash: Affected by "anti - involution" policy expectations, the futures price is pulled up, but there is a large supply - surplus pressure and the market follows commodity sentiment [32][33] - Caustic soda: Supply is approaching saturation, demand is improving, and the futures price is supported by macro - policy expectations and downstream alumina price trends [35][36] - Methanol: Supply - demand relationship has improved, with cost support and a bullish trend in the short term [2][37] - Urea: Production is expected to increase, demand is improving, and there are short - term macro - policy positives and export speculation possibilities [2] - Asphalt: Cost - side oil prices are weakly fluctuating, with sufficient raw material supply and bearish fundamentals [2] - Propylene: Considering the "anti - involution" trading, the sentiment is optimistic, and it is cautiously bullish on a single - side basis [3] 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Market Review: Overnight international oil prices rebounded, with WTI up 1.20%, Brent up 0.78%, and SC up 0.08% [4] - Basic Logic: Weak expectation and strong reality, with OPEC's production increase pressure gradually releasing. Supply - side focuses on US production changes. EU sanctions on Russia and Norwegian production decline. Chinese imports increase, and IEA has supply - demand forecasts. US inventory data shows changes [5] - Strategy Recommendation: In the long - term, supply is in surplus, and the price range is expected to be 60 - 70 dollars/barrel. In the short - term, it is in narrow - range fluctuations. Light - position short positions and buying call options are recommended [6] LPG - Market Review: On July 24, the PG main contract closed at 3994 yuan/ton, up 0.55%. Spot prices in Shandong, East China, and South China remained unchanged [7] - Basic Logic: Cost - side oil prices are in a narrow - range tug - of - war, and the fundamentals of LPG have improved. Downstream chemical demand is recovering, and the basis is at a high level [8] - Strategy Recommendation: In the long - term, the oil price center is expected to move down, and LPG prices have room for compression. In the short - term, it is bullish. Close previous short positions and go long with a light position [9] L - Market Review: Spot prices and futures prices have small fluctuations, with inventory accumulation and a decrease in the main contract's position [11] - Basic Logic: Coal - based proportion is 20%, and old - capacity proportion is 14%. Short - term volatility is biased upwards following policy expectations, and long - term high production limits the rebound space [12] - Strategy Recommendation: Hold long positions, and industries can sell for hedging. Go long on dips in the short - term [12][13] PP - Market Review: Futures prices rise, and the main contract's position increases slightly. Spot prices have small fluctuations [14] - Basic Logic: Coal - based proportion is 19%, and old - capacity proportion is 8%. Short - term volatility is biased upwards, and exports are expected to maintain high growth. Long - term third - quarter production pressure limits the upside [15] - Strategy Recommendation: Partially close long positions, and go long on dips in the short - term [15][16] PVC - Market Review: Futures prices rise, and the main contract's position decreases. Spot prices increase slightly [17] - Basic Logic: Old - capacity proportion is 11%. "Anti - deflation" trading continues, with weak spot price increases and a weak basis. Social inventory has increased for 5 weeks [18] - Strategy Recommendation: Partially close long positions due to high short - term market volatility [18] PX - Market Review: On July 18, the spot price in East China remained unchanged, and the futures price of the 09 contract increased. The month - spread and basis changed [20] - Basic Logic: Supply - side device changes are small, and demand - side changes are also limited. Supply and demand are in a tight balance, and there are macro - policy positives [21] - Strategy Recommendation: Hold long positions at low levels and look for opportunities to go long on dips. The price range is [6940 - 7050] [21][22] PTA/PR - Market Review: On July 18, the spot price in East China increased, and the futures price of the 09 contract increased. The month - spread and basis changed [23] - Basic Logic: Supply - side device changes are small, and demand is weakly bottoming out. Short - term "anti - involution" policies bring supply - side positives [24] - Strategy Recommendation: Go long on dips. The price range is [4830 - 4920] [24][25] Ethylene Glycol - Market Review: On July 18, the spot price in East China decreased slightly, and the futures price of the 09 contract increased. The month - spread and basis changed [26] - Basic Logic: Domestic and foreign device changes are small, demand is in the off - season, and there is support from a strong basis and low inventory [27] - Strategy Recommendation: Go long on dips. The price range is [4480 - 4600] [27][28] Glass - Market Review: Spot market quotes continue to rise, the futures market rises sharply, the basis weakens, and the number of warehouse receipts is 0 [30] - Basic Logic: Affected by "anti - involution" policy expectations and coal - related product price increases, the fundamentals improve, and the price center of the futures market moves upwards [31] - Strategy Recommendation: Partially close long positions after a large increase, and go long based on the 5 - day and 10 - day moving averages. The price range is [1310 - 1360] [31] Soda Ash - Market Review: Heavy - alkali spot quotes increase, the futures market rises, the basis weakens, and the number of warehouse receipts and valid forecasts increases [32] - Basic Logic: Affected by "anti - involution" policy expectations, the futures price is pulled up, but there is a large supply - surplus pressure and the market follows commodity sentiment [33] - Strategy Recommendation: The price center moves upwards, and the moving averages tend to converge. The price range is [1410 - 1460] [32][33] Caustic Soda - Market Review: Flake - caustic spot quotes increase, the futures market rises, the basis weakens, and the number of warehouse receipts is 0 [35] - Basic Logic: Supply is approaching saturation, demand is improving, and the futures price is supported by macro - policy expectations and downstream alumina price trends [36] - Strategy Recommendation: The price center moves upwards, and the upward slope slows down. The price range is [2640 - 2710] [36] Methanol - Market Review: On July 18, the spot price in East China decreased, and the futures price of the 09 contract decreased. The basis and month - spread changed [37] - Basic Logic: Supply - demand relationship has improved, with cost support and a bullish trend in the short term [2][37] - Strategy Recommendation: Go long on dips. The price range is [2470 - 2520] [2] Urea - Market Review: Not provided in the text - Basic Logic: Production is expected to increase, demand is improving, and there are short - term macro - policy positives and export speculation possibilities [2] - Strategy Recommendation: Go long on dips with a light position. The price range is [1770 - 1810] [2] Asphalt - Market Review: Not provided in the text - Basic Logic: Cost - side oil prices are weakly fluctuating, with sufficient raw material supply and bearish fundamentals [2] - Strategy Recommendation: Go short with a light position. The price range is [3550 - 3650] [2] Propylene - Market Review: Not provided in the text - Basic Logic: Considering the "anti - involution" trading, the sentiment is optimistic, and it is cautiously bullish on a single - side basis [3] - Strategy Recommendation: Go long on dips. The price range is [6550 - 6800] [3]