中辉期货热卷早报-20250725

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Steel: Short - term fluctuations possible, stay on the sidelines [3] - Iron ore: Short - term long positions to take profit, mid - term short positions to be laid out [9] - Coke: High - level risks rising, stay on the sidelines [10] - Coking coal: High - level risks rising, stay on the sidelines [14] - Ferroalloys: More restarts in production areas, stay on the sidelines [18] 2. Core Views of the Report - The news of coal production restrictions drives the overall upward movement of the black commodity sector, strengthening the bullish market sentiment [1][4] - For steel products, the supply - demand situation of rebar is relatively balanced, while the fundamentals of hot - rolled coils are relatively stable with limited contradictions [1][4] - The fundamentals of iron ore are weakening, with a shift from long to short sentiment [1][8] - The spot price of coke has started the third round of increases, and the fourth is imminent. The market is highly bullish [1][12] - The domestic coking coal production has rebounded, but the production restriction policy brings uncertainty. The futures market sentiment is overly bullish [1][16] - For ferroalloys, the production and operating rates of ferromanganese and ferrosilicon are rising, but the ferrosilicon has high delivery inventory pressure [1][20] 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Steel - Rebar - Price range: [3280, 3330] [1] - Reasons: The production and apparent demand have both rebounded month - on - month, and the total inventory has slightly decreased. The molten iron production has slightly declined but remains at a high level. Driven by policy expectations, the market sentiment is strong, but there may be short - term fluctuations after a rapid rise [1][4][5] - Hot - rolled coils - Price range: [3440, 3500] [1] - Reasons: The production and apparent demand have slightly decreased, and the inventory has slightly increased. The market trades around factors such as macro - policies, anti - involution, and industry production restriction policies. The sharp rise in raw material prices has also pushed up steel prices, but there may be short - term fluctuations after a rapid rise [1][5] 3.2 Iron Ore - Price range: [780, 820] [1] - Reasons: The molten iron production has decreased, and the supply side has seen an increase in both arrivals and shipments, with more shipments expected in the future. Port inventories are rising. The previous rapid price increase may lead to a subsequent correction, so pay attention to policy expectations [1][8] - Operation suggestion: Short - term long positions to take profit, mid - term short positions to be laid out [9] 3.3 Coke - Price range: [1700, 1750] [1] - Reasons: The spot price has started the third round of increases, and the fourth is imminent. The news of coal production restrictions has boosted market expectations, and steel mills' restocking has made the market more bullish. The current market atmosphere is highly excited [1][12] - Operation suggestion: Stay on the sidelines [13] 3.4 Coking Coal - Price range: [1200, 1259] [1] - Reasons: The news of coal production restrictions has strengthened the bullish market sentiment, and the futures price has risen sharply recently. The domestic coking coal production has rebounded and is close to last year's level. Some mines have restarted production in July, but the production restriction policy brings uncertainty. The spot trading has improved, the market sentiment has generally improved, and inventory is shifting from upstream to downstream. However, the futures market sentiment is overly excited [1][16] - Operation suggestion: Stay on the sidelines [17] 3.5 Ferroalloys - Ferromanganese - Price range: [5840, 6050] [1] - Reasons: The production and operating rates have continued to rise this week. The northern production areas have stable operations, and there are more restarts in the southern production areas. The short - term demand for ferromanganese is rigidly supported by the increase in rebar production. The overall supply - demand contradiction is relatively limited, and the short - term price fluctuates with market sentiment [1][20][21] - Ferrosilicon - Price range: [5635, 5875] [1] - Reasons: The production and operating rates have continued to rise, but there are both maintenance and restarts in the main production areas. The factory inventory pressure has been released, but the delivery inventory is at a relatively high level in the same period, with obvious near - end warehouse receipt pressure. It may face short - term correction pressure, and the price will remain under pressure without obvious improvement in fundamentals [1][20][21]