瑞达期货沪锡产业日报-20250725

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Macroscopically, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will promote key industries to adjust structures, optimize supplies, and eliminate backward production capacity; Trump plans to impose simple tariffs of 15% - 50% on most countries. Fundamentally, although Myanmar's Wa State has restarted the approval of mining licenses, actual ore production will not start until the fourth quarter; the Bisie mine in Congo plans to resume production in phases, and currently, tin ore processing fees remain at historically low levels. Technically, there is an increase in volume and positions, the bullish sentiment is strengthening, and the price has broken through the 270,000 mark. Operationally, a bullish approach is recommended, with a reference range of 272,000 - 278,000 [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for Shanghai tin is 273,950 yuan/ton, up 5,410 yuan; the price of LME 3 - month tin is 34,750 US dollars/ton, up 830 US dollars. The closing price difference between the August - September contracts for Shanghai tin is - 210 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan. The main contract position for Shanghai tin is 14,958 lots, down 746 lots. The net position of the top 20 futures for Shanghai tin is 84 lots, down 415 lots. LME tin total inventory is 1,690 tons, down 25 tons; Shanghai Futures Exchange tin inventory is 7,148 tons, up 51 tons; LME tin cancelled warrants are 295 tons, up 20 tons; Shanghai Futures Exchange tin warehouse receipts are 6,863 tons, up 56 tons [3] 3.2 Spot Market - The SMM 1 tin spot price is 272,400 yuan/ton, up 3,500 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - Ferrous Market 1 tin spot price is 273,390 yuan/ton, up 3,930 yuan. The basis of the main Shanghai tin contract is 360 yuan/ton, up 2,580 yuan; the LME tin premium (0 - 3) is 175 US dollars/ton, up 90 US dollars [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of tin ore and concentrates is 1.21 million tons, down 0.29 million tons. The average price of 40% tin concentrate processing fees is 10,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of 40% tin concentrate is 253,500 yuan/ton, down 1,200 yuan; the average price of 60% tin concentrate is 257,500 yuan/ton, down 1,200 yuan; the average price of 60% tin concentrate processing fees is 6,500 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of refined tin is 14,000 tons, down 1,600 tons; the monthly import volume of refined tin is 3,762.32 tons, up 143.24 tons [3] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The price of 60A solder bars in Gejiu is 176,870 yuan/ton, up 1,970 yuan. The cumulative monthly output of tin - plated sheets (strips) is 1.6014 million tons, up 0.1445 million tons; the monthly export volume of tin - plated sheets is 140,700 tons, down 33,900 tons [3] 3.6 Industry News - Trump plans to impose simple tariffs of 15% - 50% on most countries and is willing to abandon the tariff clause if major countries open their markets to the US. The National Development and Reform Commission will take measures to improve the coordinated development mechanism of state - owned and private enterprises. The EU and the US are moving towards an agreement with a 15% tariff rate, and the EU is preparing a retaliatory tariff plan of up to 93 billion euros with a maximum rate of 30% [3] 3.7 Viewpoint Summary - In the smelting sector, Yunnan is facing a shortage of raw materials and high costs, while Jiangxi's scrap recycling system is under pressure, and the operating rate is low. On the demand side, after the rush to install photovoltaic equipment, the operating rate of some producers has declined; the electronics industry is in a off - season with a strong wait - and - see attitude. Recently, the spot market has been sluggish, with few transactions, and downstream enterprises have low purchasing willingness. Domestic inventory has decreased slightly, while LME inventory has decreased significantly, and cancelled warrants have increased slightly [3]