宝城期货原油早报-20250725

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Report's Core View - The domestic crude oil futures contract 2509 is expected to run strongly, with short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends being oscillatory, oscillatory, and oscillatory - bullish respectively. The improvement of macro factors leads to a bullish trend, and although some major oil - producing countries plan to increase production in August, the negative impact is gradually digested, and the future space for further expansion of production is limited [1][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price and Trend - The domestic crude oil futures 2509 contract slightly rose 0.56% to 507.1 yuan/barrel in the night session on Thursday, and is expected to maintain an oscillatory - bullish trend on Friday [5]. 3.2 Time - cycle Views - Short - term (within one week): The trend of crude oil 2509 is oscillatory [1]. - Medium - term (two weeks to one month): The trend of crude oil 2509 is oscillatory [1]. - Intraday: The trend of crude oil 2509 is oscillatory - bullish [1][5]. 3.3 Core Logic - Macro factors have improved. The US and Japan reached a trade agreement, China and the US will hold an economic and trade meeting in Sweden from July 27th to 30th, and there are rumors that Europe and the US will also reach a tariff agreement, which has significantly increased the risk appetite of the commodity market [5]. - Although 8 major oil - producing countries in OPEC and non - OPEC decided to increase production by 548,000 barrels per day in August, exceeding market expectations, the negative impact of the production increase is gradually digested, and the future space for further expansion of production is limited as the original production - increase plan of the oil - producing countries is gradually realized [5].