金融期货早评-20250725

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the content Core Views Financial Futures - The USD/CNY spot exchange rate is expected to remain stable and move forward (weaker) this week. The Fed's independence is under "stress test", and the overall weak trend is expected to continue. The PBOC will likely adhere to the regulatory philosophy of "bottom - line thinking + contingency", and the probability of the USD/CNY spot exchange rate falling below 7 is increasing [2] - The stock index is expected to continue to be strong as market sentiment remains optimistic. The CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indexes are relatively strong, and the trading volume of the two markets remains at a high level. The news is dull, and the long - position is recommended to hold and wait [3] - The freight rate of container shipping (European line) futures may continue to be volatile. The prices of mainstream shipping companies in August are still higher than those in July, and the reduction of US - EU tariffs is expected to boost trade, but the near - month contracts may fall again [5] Commodities Precious Metals - Gold and silver are under pressure in the short term as equity assets perform well. In the medium - to - long - term, they may be bullish, but there is short - term adjustment pressure. The callback buying strategy is recommended [6][8] Copper - Copper may be slightly stronger in the short term but may fall in the medium term. The rise of the non - ferrous metal sector is due to demand rather than supply, but there are hidden risks in the medium - term rise [10] Aluminum Industry Chain - Aluminum is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term. Macro - level factors boost sentiment, and low inventory supports prices [12] - Alumina may fluctuate in the short term. The current supply is in surplus, but the spot is tight, and it may fall sharply when there is negative news [13][14] - Cast aluminum alloy may fluctuate at a high level. The cost is supported, but the demand is in the off - season, and there are opportunities for arbitrage [14] Zinc - Zinc is expected to fluctuate widely and may fall in the long term. The supply is gradually shifting from tight to surplus, and the demand is weak in the off - season [15] Nickel and Stainless Steel - Nickel and stainless steel are expected to continue to fluctuate. The supply of nickel ore is expected to be loose, and the demand for stainless steel is weak [16] Tin - Tin has strengthened slightly, and there are opportunities to sell on rallies. The supply of Burmese ore is about to increase, and the upward pressure on prices is greater than the support [18] Carbonate Lithium - The futures market of carbonate lithium is active, but risks should be noted. The spot market of the lithium - battery industry chain is stable, and the cost is supported [19] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - The prices of industrial silicon and polysilicon futures are volatile, and investors should pay attention to position risks. The market sentiment is strong, but there are risks on both the supply and demand sides [20][21] Lead - Lead is expected to fluctuate before the demand improves. The supply is tight, and the demand is approaching the peak season, but the spot trading is in a wait - and - see state [22] Black Metals Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - Rebar and hot - rolled coil are expected to continue to rise. The "anti - involution" policy boosts market sentiment, and the supply - demand contradiction of steel has not accumulated, and the profit of steel mills is good [24] Iron Ore - Iron ore is expected to be strong but with limited upward momentum. The "anti - involution" policy has little impact on the supply side, and the current valuation is high [26][27] Coking Coal and Coke - Coking coal and coke are easy to rise and difficult to fall in the short term. The "anti - involution" policy in the coal industry drives the price increase, and the inventory of the upstream decreases. In the long term, the price increase may affect the downstream [29][30] Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese - The prices of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese are expected to be optimistic in the short term. The profit of ferroalloys is repaired, and the demand from steel mills is supported, but the supply - demand contradiction is not significant [31][32] Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - Crude oil is in a narrow - range shock adjustment phase. The demand in the peak season provides support, but the support is weakening. Next week's macro - level meetings may bring new guidance [36] PTA - PX - PX - PTA is expected to be strong in the short term. The current fundamental driving force is limited, and the "anti - involution" policy boosts sentiment. The follow - up should focus on the Politburo meeting [39] MEG - Bottle Chip - MEG is expected to be strong. The supply side has many unexpected situations, and the "anti - involution" policy boosts sentiment. The bottle chip price fluctuates with the cost [42] Methanol - It is recommended to wait and see for methanol. The market is affected by macro - level factors, and the inventory is accumulating in the off - season. The focus is on whether the coastal MTO will shut down for maintenance [44] PP - PP is driven up by macro - level sentiment but faces resistance. The supply pressure is large, and the demand is in the off - season, and the follow - up should focus on the demand recovery and policy progress [46] PE - PE is driven up by macro - level factors, and the spot is weak. The current inventory is accumulating, but the supply increment is limited, and the demand is expected to recover in the peak season [48] PVC - PVC is affected by the "anti - involution" sentiment. The current data is poor, but the "anti - involution" value is high. It is recommended to avoid risks when the production limit is unclear [50] Pure Benzene - Pure benzene is recommended to wait and see in the short term. The supply side fluctuates slightly, the demand side improves, and the inventory increases. The market is affected by the macro - level sentiment before the end - of - month meeting [51] Styrene - Styrene is affected by macro - level disturbances. The supply side decreases slightly, the demand side is weak, and the inventory increases. It is recommended to avoid short - selling in the short term and focus on the end - of - month meetings [52] Fuel Oil - Fuel oil is boosted by crude oil. The supply is tight, the demand is improving, and there are opportunities for the FU09 - 01 spread [53][54] Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Low - sulfur fuel oil is boosted by crude oil. The supply is low, the demand is slightly improved, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short term [54] Asphalt - Asphalt fluctuates with the cost. The supply - demand is stable, the inventory is being reduced, and the demand is expected to improve in the peak season. It is affected by the "anti - involution" sentiment in the short term [55] Glass and Soda Ash - Soda ash and glass remain strong. The "anti - involution" policy has an uncertain impact on soda ash, and the supply is stable, but the demand is weak. Glass is in a weak balance, and the inventory is still high [56][58] Log - Logs are expected to have low - volatility shocks. The fundamentals change little, the funds are reducing positions, and the valuation is slightly high [59] Pulp - Pulp is mainly driven by the macro - level. After breaking through and retesting, it can be cautiously chased to go long [60] Caustic Soda - Caustic soda rises with the market. The short - term contradiction is limited, and the supply pressure may increase in the long term. The market is affected by the old - device issue [62] Agricultural Products Live Pigs - Live pigs are recommended to be shorted on rallies. The supply is high, and the demand is weak in the short term, but there is pressure - holding sentiment in the market [63] Oilseeds - It is recommended to go long on the far - month contracts of oilseeds at low prices. The external market of soybeans is volatile, and the internal market is affected by the policy. The supply of domestic soybeans is sufficient, and the demand for rapeseed meal is affected by the situation of India and other countries [64][65] Corn and Starch - Corn and starch are expected to fluctuate. There is no obvious positive news, and the growth of new - crop corn should be monitored [66] Cotton - Cotton is expected to be strong in the short term. The low inventory supports the price, but the terminal demand is weak in the off - season. The follow - up should focus on the import quota policy and inventory reduction [68] Sugar - Sugar maintains an internal - strong and external - weak pattern. The international sugar price rises due to improved demand, and the domestic sugar price is stronger than the external market [69] Eggs - Eggs are recommended to be in an anti - spread position. The long - term egg production capacity is loose, and the short - term price is strong [71] Summaries by Directory Financial Futures RMB Exchange Rate - Yesterday, the on - shore RMB/USD closed at 7.1547, up 63 basis points, and the central parity rate was 7.1385, up 29 basis points. The Fed's independence is under test, and the PBOC will balance exchange - rate flexibility and risk prevention [1][2] Stock Index - Yesterday, the stock index rose collectively. The CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indexes reached new highs this year. The news is dull, and the market sentiment is optimistic, so it is expected to be strong [3] Container Shipping - The prices of container shipping (European line) futures fluctuated widely yesterday. The spot price of some shipping companies increased in August, and the reduction of US - EU tariffs is expected to boost the market [3][5] Commodities Precious Metals - Gold and silver prices fell on Thursday. The Fed's "renovation gate" and the European Central Bank's interest - rate decision affected the market. The long - term trend may be bullish, but there is short - term adjustment pressure [6] Copper - The Shanghai copper index fluctuated at a high level on Thursday. The development of emerging industries and the "anti - involution" policy may affect demand. Copper may be slightly stronger in the short term but may fall in the medium term [9][10] Aluminum Industry Chain - Aluminum prices fluctuated on Thursday. The "anti - involution" policy has limited impact on the fundamentals but boosts sentiment. The inventory is low, and it is expected to fluctuate at a high level [12] - Alumina prices rose slightly. The supply is in surplus, but the spot is tight. The price may be affected by macro - level sentiment and inventory [13][14] - The price of cast aluminum alloy fluctuated. The cost is supported, but the demand is in the off - season, and there are arbitrage opportunities [14] Zinc - The Shanghai zinc main contract closed slightly higher on Thursday. The supply is gradually shifting from tight to surplus, and the demand is weak in the off - season. It is recommended to short on rallies [15] Nickel and Stainless Steel - The prices of nickel and stainless steel rose slightly on Thursday. The supply of nickel ore is expected to be loose, and the demand for stainless steel is weak. The follow - up should focus on the support of nickel - iron [16] Tin - The Shanghai tin index rose slightly on Thursday. The fundamentals are stable. The supply of Burmese ore is about to increase, and it is recommended to sell on rallies [18] Carbonate Lithium - The carbonate lithium futures limit - up on Thursday. The spot market of the lithium - battery industry chain is stable, and the cost is supported. The market is active, but risks should be noted [19] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - The industrial silicon futures rose on Thursday, and the polysilicon futures fluctuated at a high level. The spot price of industrial silicon is strong, and the polysilicon price is stable. The market sentiment is strong, but risks should be noted [20][21] Lead - The Shanghai lead main contract closed slightly higher on Thursday. The supply is tight, and the demand is approaching the peak season, but the spot trading is in a wait - and - see state. It is expected to fluctuate [22] Black Metals Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - Rebar and hot - rolled coil are in a strong - shock state. The "anti - involution" policy boosts sentiment, and the supply - demand contradiction of steel has not accumulated, and the profit of steel mills is good [24] Iron Ore - The iron ore market is affected by the "anti - involution" policy. The supply side has little impact, and the current valuation is high. It is expected to be strong but with limited upward momentum [26][27] Coking Coal and Coke - Coking coal and coke prices rose sharply. The "anti - involution" policy in the coal industry drives the price increase, and the inventory of the upstream decreases. The short - term is easy to rise, and the long - term should consider the downstream [29][30] Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese - The prices of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese are expected to be optimistic in the short term. The profit of ferroalloys is repaired, and the demand from steel mills is supported, but the supply - demand contradiction is not significant [31][32] Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - Crude oil prices rose slightly on Thursday. The US government may authorize Venezuelan oil partners, and the demand in the peak season provides support. It is in a narrow - range shock adjustment phase [34][36] PTA - PX - PX - PTA prices rose slightly. The PX load decreased slightly, and the PTA supply is stable. The demand for polyester is weak, and the market is expected to be strong in the short term [37][38][39] MEG - Bottle Chip - MEG prices are volatile. The supply side has many unexpected situations, and the demand is weak. The bottle chip price fluctuates with the cost [40][42] Methanol - Methanol prices are affected by macro - level factors. The inventory is accumulating in the off - season, and the focus is on whether the coastal MTO will shut down for maintenance [43][44] PP - PP prices rose. The supply pressure is large, and the demand is in the off - season. The macro - level sentiment drives the price up, but there is resistance [45][46] PE - PE prices rose. The supply increment is limited, and the demand is expected to recover in the peak season. The current inventory is accumulating, and the spot is weak [47][48] PVC - PVC prices rose sharply. The "anti - involution" sentiment drives the price up, and the current data is poor, but the "anti - involution" value is high [49][50] Pure Benzene - Pure benzene prices rose. The supply side fluctuates slightly, the demand side improves, and the inventory increases. The market is affected by the macro - level sentiment [51] Styrene - Styrene prices rose. The supply side decreases slightly, the demand side is weak, and the inventory increases. The short - term is affected by macro - level disturbances [52] Fuel Oil - Fuel oil prices rose. The supply is tight, the demand is improving, and there are opportunities for the FU09 - 01 spread [53][54] Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Low - sulfur fuel oil prices rose. The supply is low, the demand is slightly improved, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short term [54] Asphalt - Asphalt prices fluctuated. The supply - demand is stable, the inventory is being reduced, and the demand is expected to improve in the peak season. The short - term is affected by the "anti - involution" sentiment [54][55] Glass and Soda Ash - Soda ash prices rose. The "anti - involution" policy has an uncertain impact, the supply is stable, and the demand is weak. The inventory is high [56][57] - Glass prices rose. The supply is stable, the demand is weak in the off - season, and the inventory is high. The short - term is strong, and the follow - up should focus on the policy and inventory [58] Log - Log prices fell slightly. The fundamentals change little, the funds are reducing positions, and the valuation is slightly high. It is expected to have low - volatility shocks [59] Pulp - Pulp prices rose. The spot price is stable, and the futures price is mainly driven by the macro - level. After breaking through and retesting, it can be cautiously chased to go long [60] Caustic Soda - Caustic soda prices rose. The short - term contradiction is limited, and the supply pressure may increase in the long term. The market is affected by the old - device issue [62] Agricultural Products Live Pigs - Live pig prices fell. The supply is high, and the demand is weak in the short term, but there is pressure - holding sentiment in the market. It is recommended to be short on rallies [63] Oilseeds - The external market of soybeans is volatile, and the internal market is affected by the policy. The supply of domestic soybeans is sufficient, and the demand for rapeseed meal is affected by the situation