研究所晨会观点精萃：美国PMI和就业数据好于预期，提振全球风险偏好-20250725

Report Industry Investment Ratings - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating, but offers investment suggestions for different asset classes and sectors: - Stocks: Short - term cautious long [2][3] - Bonds: Short - term high - level oscillatory correction, cautious wait - and - see [2] - Commodities: - Black metals: Short - term volatile increase, short - term cautious long [2] - Non - ferrous metals: Short - term oscillatory rebound, short - term cautious long [2] - Energy and chemicals: Short - term oscillation, cautious wait - and - see [2] - Precious metals: Short - term high - level oscillation, cautious long [2] Core Viewpoints - Overseas, the European Central Bank kept interest rates unchanged, and the US economic growth accelerated due to better - than - expected PMI and employment data, leading to a rebound in the US dollar index and an increase in global risk appetite. Domestically, although the economic growth in the first half of the year was higher than expected, consumption and investment slowed down in June. The "anti - involution" policy and the ten - industry growth - stabilizing policies are expected to boost domestic risk appetite [2]. - Different asset classes and sectors have different trends and investment suggestions based on their fundamentals and policy impacts. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro - finance - Global situation: The European Central Bank's decision, the EU's anti - tariff plan, and the easing of global trade tensions, along with the better - than - expected US economic data, have led to a rise in global risk appetite. The US dollar index rebounded [2]. - Domestic situation: The first - half economic growth was higher than expected, but June consumption and investment slowed. Policy measures are expected to boost domestic risk appetite [2]. - Asset performance: Stocks are expected to oscillate strongly in the short term; bonds to correct at a high level; black metals to be volatile; non - ferrous metals to rebound; energy and chemicals to oscillate; precious metals to oscillate at a high level [2]. Stocks - Driven by sectors such as Hainan concept, energy metals, and rare earth permanent magnets, the domestic stock market continued to rise. The short - term macro - upward drive has increased, and attention should be paid to the progress of Sino - US trade negotiations and the implementation of domestic incremental policies. Short - term cautious long [3]. Black Metals - Steel: The steel market was oscillating strongly on Thursday. The supply contraction expectation of coking coal supported the steel market. The real - world demand was weak, and the production and consumption of five major steel products decreased. The supply may be restricted around the 9.3 parade. The market is expected to be oscillating strongly in the short term [4]. - Iron ore: The spot price of iron ore rebounded slightly on Thursday, while the futures price continued to weaken. The pig iron production is at a high level but has limited upward space. The global iron ore shipment increased, but the shipment from Australia and Brazil decreased. The price is expected to oscillate within a range in the short term [4]. - Silicon manganese/silicon iron: The prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese decreased on Thursday. The demand for ferroalloys was weak due to the decline in steel production. The prices of raw materials such as manganese ore and coal were strong. The steel tender price increased. The prices are expected to oscillate within a range in the short term [7]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy - Copper: The EU and the US are approaching a tariff agreement. The upcoming Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's growth - stabilizing plan has boosted sentiment. The future trend of copper prices depends on the tariff implementation time [10][11]. - Aluminum: The price of aluminum oscillated narrowly on Thursday. The import of scrap aluminum decreased. The fundamentals are weak, but the policy has boosted sentiment. The price increase is limited [11]. - Aluminum alloy: The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term but has limited upward space [11]. - Tin: The supply is recovering, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to oscillate in the short term, and the upward space will be restricted in the medium term [12]. - Lithium carbonate: The price of lithium carbonate increased significantly on Thursday. Supply disruptions and policy sentiment support the price, which is expected to be oscillating strongly [13]. - Industrial silicon: The price of industrial silicon decreased slightly on Thursday. The "anti - involution" sentiment has an impact, and the price is expected to be oscillating strongly [14]. - Polysilicon: The price of polysilicon increased significantly on Thursday. The margin requirements have been adjusted. The price is expected to be oscillating strongly [15]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil: The EU and the US are close to a tariff agreement, but the resumption of Chevron's production in Venezuela may increase supply. The oil price is expected to be bearish in the long term and oscillate in the short term [16]. - Asphalt: The price of asphalt is stable after a correction. The inventory de - stocking has stagnated, and the demand in the peak season is average. The price is expected to follow the crude oil price in the short term, with limited upward space [16]. - PX: The support from the previous strong resonance of the sector has weakened. PX is in a tight supply situation, and the price is expected to be oscillating strongly in the short term [17]. - PTA: The PTA price has increased, but the spot drive is weak. The demand is in the off - season, and the processing fee is low. The price is expected to be oscillating strongly in the short term [17]. - Ethylene glycol: The price of ethylene glycol has increased. The inventory has decreased slightly, but the downstream demand is weak. The price is expected to be oscillating strongly in the short term [18]. - Short - fiber: The price of short - fiber has increased driven by the crude oil price and sector resonance. The terminal orders are average, and the inventory is high. The price is expected to be oscillating strongly in the medium term [18]. - Methanol: The price of methanol has increased. The inventory has decreased, but the long - term supply pressure is large. The price is expected to be strong in the short term but limited in the long term [19]. - PP: The price of PP has adjusted slightly. The policy expectation is positive, but the supply pressure is increasing, and the demand is weak. The price is under pressure in the long term [20]. - PL: The price of propylene is stable. The supply pressure is large, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly [20]. - LLDPE: The price of LLDPE has adjusted. The supply is increasing, and the demand is weak. The price may rebound in the short term but has a downward trend in the long term [21]. - Urea: The price of urea is in a stalemate. The demand is weakening, and the supply is abundant. The price is expected to oscillate weakly [22][23]. Agricultural Products - US soybeans: The overnight CBOT November soybean price increased. The US soybean export sales were lower than expected [24]. - Soybean and rapeseed meal: The soybean meal is expected to be strong in the short term and may correct significantly in mid - to - late August. The cost - driven force is not strong, and the futures price increase is limited [24]. - Soybean and rapeseed oil: The inventory pressure of soybean oil is high, and the demand is weak. The palm oil is the dominant factor in the soybean and rapeseed oil market. The soybean - palm oil price difference may increase [25]. - Palm oil: The palm oil market is in a short - term bull market, but the upward resistance is increasing. The inventory is increasing, and the selling pressure may increase [25]. - Pigs: The pig supply is expected to increase in the second half of the year, and the price increase is limited. The futures contract profit is high, and it is a suitable time for selling hedging [26]. - Corn: Corn is in the supply - demand off - season from late July to August. The price is expected to oscillate narrowly. The weather may affect the price in mid - to - late September [26][27]