国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：黑色系列-20250725

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The report does not provide industry - wide investment ratings. 2. Core Views - The report covers multiple commodities in the black series, with different outlooks for each. Iron ore is expected to show a relatively strong oscillation supported by macro - expectations; rebar and hot - rolled coil are expected to have wide - range oscillations; silicon iron and manganese silicon are expected to have wide - range oscillations due to the upward shift of overseas miners' quotes; coke is expected to be oscillating strongly after the third price increase; coking coal is expected to be oscillating strongly due to strengthened supply policy expectations; thermal coal is expected to stabilize after the daily consumption recovers; and logs are expected to have repeated oscillations [2]. 3. Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - Price and Position Data: The previous day's futures closing price was 811.0 yuan/ton, down 1.0 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.12%. The previous day's position was 562,835 lots, a decrease of 17,104 lots. Among spot prices, PB (61.5%) increased by 1.0 yuan/ton, while others remained unchanged [5]. - Macro and Industry News: On July 24, the National Development and Reform Commission and the State Administration for Market Regulation solicited public opinions on the "Draft Amendment to the Price Law of the People's Republic of China (Solicitation of Comments)" [5]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity is 1, indicating a relatively strong trend [5]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - Price and Position Data: For rebar RB2510, the closing price was 3,294 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan/ton with a gain of 0.34%. For hot - rolled coil HC2510, the closing price was 3,456 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan/ton with a gain of 0.35%. In terms of spot prices, some regions' prices increased, while others remained unchanged or decreased [8]. - Macro and Industry News: On July 24, the weekly data from Steel Union showed that in terms of production, rebar increased by 2.9 tons, hot - rolled coil decreased by 3.65 tons, and the total of five major varieties decreased by 1.22 tons. In terms of total inventory, rebar decreased by 4.62 tons, hot - rolled coil increased by 2.25 tons, and the total of five major varieties decreased by 1.16 tons. In terms of apparent demand, rebar increased by 10.41 tons, hot - rolled coil decreased by 8.55 tons, and the total of five major varieties decreased by 1.98 tons. In mid - July 2025, key steel enterprises' average daily production of crude steel, pig iron, and steel increased compared to the previous period. On July 24, the National Development and Reform Commission and the State Administration for Market Regulation solicited public opinions on the price law amendment draft [9][10]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity for both rebar and hot - rolled coil is 0, indicating a neutral trend [10]. Silicon Iron and Manganese Silicon - Price and Position Data: For silicon iron 2509, the closing price was 5754 yuan/ton, down 78 yuan/ton. For manganese silicon 2509, the closing price was 5948 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton. Among spot prices, silicon manganese: FeMn65Si17: Inner Mongolia decreased by 70.0 yuan/ton, and manganese ore: Mn44 block decreased by 0.5 yuan/ton - degree [11]. - Macro and Industry News: On July 24, the prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese in different regions were reported. A steel mill in Fujian set the silicon manganese price at 5800 yuan/ton. The export volume of manganese ore from Australia's Port Hedland in June 2025 increased compared to the previous month and the same period last year, but the total export volume in the first half of the year decreased compared to the same period in 2024. South32's September 2025 quotes for South African semi - carbonate blocks and Australian blocks increased compared to the previous month [12][13]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity for both silicon iron and manganese silicon is 0, indicating a neutral trend [13]. Coke and Coking Coal - Price and Position Data: For coking coal JM2509, the closing price was 1198.5 yuan/ton, up 63 yuan/ton with a gain of 5.55%. For coke J2509, the closing price was 1735 yuan/ton, up 27.5 yuan/ton with a gain of 1.61%. Among spot prices, some coking coal and coke prices increased [15]. - Price and Position Situation: The prices of coking coal in northern ports were reported, and the CCI metallurgical coal index on July 24 showed price changes. In terms of positions, on July 24, for the coking coal JM2509 contract, long positions increased by 44,538 lots, and short positions increased by 26,271 lots. For the coke J2509 contract, long positions decreased by 907 lots, and short positions increased by 164 lots [15][17]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity for both coke and coking coal is 1, indicating a relatively strong trend [17]. Thermal Coal - Price and Position Data: The previous day's trading of the thermal coal ZC2507 contract had no transactions. The previous opening price was 931.6000 yuan/ton, the highest was 931.6000 yuan/ton, the lowest was 840.0000 yuan/ton, and it closed at 840.0000 yuan/ton, down 51.4 yuan/ton compared to the previous settlement price, with 18 lots traded and 0 lots held [20]. - Fundamentals: The prices of southern port's imported thermal coal and domestic thermal coal in production areas were reported. On July 24, for the thermal coal ZC2507 contract, long positions decreased by 0 lots, and short positions decreased by 0 lots [21]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral trend [22]. Logs - Price and Position Data: The closing prices, trading volumes, and positions of different log contracts on different days were reported, along with price changes of various log and wood - square spot markets [24]. - Macro and Industry News: On July 24, the National Development and Reform Commission and the State Administration for Market Regulation solicited public opinions on the "Draft Amendment to the Price Law of the People's Republic of China (Solicitation of Comments)" [26]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity is 1, indicating a relatively strong trend [26].