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长江期货市场交易指引-20250725
Chang Jiang Qi Huo·2025-07-25 02:05

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Macrofinance: Index futures are rated as a slow - bull market with an upward - trending shock; Treasury bonds are rated for profit - taking [6] - Black Building Materials: Rebar is rated for shock; Iron ore is rated for an upward - trending shock; Coking coal and coke are rated for cautious trial - buying [7][8][10] - Non - ferrous Metals: Copper is rated for range trading or waiting; Aluminum is rated for waiting; Nickel is rated for shorting on rallies; Tin is rated for range trading; Gold and silver are rated for range trading [12][14][18] - Energy and Chemicals: PVC is rated for an upward - trending shock; Caustic soda is rated for shock; Styrene is rated for shock; Rubber is rated for an upward - trending shock; Urea and methanol are rated neutral; Polyolefins are rated for a downward - trending shock; Soda ash is rated for waiting and exiting [22][24][26][27][30][31][33][34] - Cotton and Textile Industry Chain: Cotton and cotton yarn are rated for an upward - trending shock; Apples and jujubes are rated for shock [36][37] - Agricultural and Livestock: Pigs and eggs are rated for shorting on rallies; Corn is rated for range trading; Soybean meal and oils are rated for an upward - trending shock [39][41][42][44][45][46] Core Views The report provides investment ratings and trading strategies for various futures products in different industries. It analyzes the market situation of each product from aspects such as macro - policies, supply - demand fundamentals, and international events, and gives corresponding investment suggestions based on the analysis results [1][6][8] Summaries by Directory Macrofinance - Index Futures: The slow - bull trend is gradually clear, and the index center moves up due to factors such as the Fed's "renovation gate", the European Central Bank's interest - rate policy, China's policy adjustments, and market sentiment changes [6] - Treasury Bonds: The bond market is in a weak shock. It is recommended to preserve strength and wait for better opportunities to enter the market for allocation due to the influence of investors' behavior and the performance of large - category assets [6] Black Building Materials - Rebar: The price is in a shock state. The raw materials drive the steel price up, but the supply - demand contradiction in the off - season is not obvious. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to the opportunity of shorting futures while going long on the spot [8] - Iron Ore: The price is in an upward - trending shock. The policy expectation at the end of the month is enhanced, the demand is relatively strong, and the supply is stable. It is expected that the price will continue to be strong [8] - Coking Coal and Coke: The coking coal market shows a pattern of strong supply and demand, and the short - term price support is strong. The coke market has obvious supply - demand game characteristics. It is necessary to pay attention to factors such as the progress of coal - mine resumption, the continuity of coke price increases, and steel - mill profits [10][11] Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: The price is in a high - level shock. Factors such as the US tariff policy, domestic supply - side reform, and seasonal demand changes affect the price. It is recommended for range trading or waiting [12] - Aluminum: The price is in a high - level shock. The supply and demand situation is complex, and the short - term upward space is limited. It is recommended to pay attention to inventory accumulation [14] - Nickel: The long - term supply in the nickel industry is excessive, and the price is expected to be in a shock state. It is recommended to short on rallies [18] - Tin: The supply - demand gap of tin ore is gradually improving, and the price is expected to be supported. It is recommended for range trading [19] - Gold and Silver: The prices of precious metals are in a shock state. The US economic data and tariff policy expectations affect the price. It is recommended for range trading [20][21] Energy and Chemicals - PVC: The supply - demand is still weak, but the policy expectation is dominant, and the price is in an upward - trending shock. It is necessary to pay attention to the support at 5150 [22][23] - Caustic Soda: The supply is at a high level, and the demand has rigid support but the growth rate slows down. The price is in a shock state, and the 09 contract temporarily pays attention to 2500 - 2700 [24][25] - Styrene: The fundamental support is limited, and the macro - environment is warm. The price is in a shock state, and it temporarily pays attention to 7300 - 7700 [26][27] - Rubber: The raw materials are firm, and the inventory shows a small - scale de - stocking trend, but the market sentiment is weakening. The price is in an upward - trending shock, and it pays attention to the pressure at 15000 [27][29] - Urea: The supply decreases slightly, the demand has certain support, and the de - stocking trend continues. The price is expected to be in a shock state, with a reference range of 1680 - 1850 [30] - Methanol: The supply is tight in some areas, the demand of the methanol - to - olefins industry increases slightly, and the traditional demand is weak. The price is expected to be in a shock state [32] - Polyolefins: The supply pressure is large, the demand is in the off - season, and the inventory has a small - scale de - stocking. The price is expected to return to the fundamentals, with a short - term rebound but limited strength [32][33] - Soda Ash: Affected by the news of the work plan for stabilizing growth in ten key industries, the futures price rises sharply. It is recommended to wait and exit the market [34][35] Cotton and Textile Industry Chain - Cotton and Cotton Yarn: The global cotton supply and demand situation changes, the downstream consumption is light, but the spot market is tight. The price is expected to be in an upward - trending shock [36] - Apples: The trading in the production area is on - demand, the supply in the early - maturing fruit market is limited, and the price is expected to be in a shock state [37] - Jujubes: The new - season jujube growth is in the physiological fruit - dropping stage, the arrival volume in the sales area is small, and the price is expected to be stable in the short term [37] Agricultural and Livestock - Pigs: The supply - demand pressure exists, showing a pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength. It is recommended to short on rallies for the 09 and 11 contracts and wait and see for the 01 contract [39][40] - Eggs: The short - term supply pressure is weakened, but the long - term supply is expected to increase. It is recommended to short on rallies for the 09 contract and wait for buying opportunities at low prices for the 12 and 01 contracts [41][42] - Corn: The short - term supply - demand game intensifies, and the price is in a range shock. It is recommended to be cautious in going long unilaterally and pay attention to the 9 - 1 reverse - spread opportunity [43][44] - Soybean Meal: The short - term supply is sufficient, and the price is in a shock state. The medium - and long - term supply gap exists, and it is recommended to go long at low prices [45][46] - Oils: The prices of various oils are in an upward - trending shock. It is recommended to buy on dips for the 09 contracts of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil in the corresponding intervals [46][51]