Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The A - share market has a positive trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing above 3600 points for the first time since January 2022. However, attention should be paid to the movement of profit - taking funds. The macro - financial market is affected by policies and inflation expectations, and different varieties have different investment strategies [12][13]. - In the black market, due to anti - involution and stable - growth policies, the inflation expectation through the supply - side is increasing. Steel and ore prices may fluctuate and adjust in the short term, while coal and coke prices are affected by supply and demand and policy factors [16][17][18]. - The non - ferrous and new materials market is influenced by "anti - involution" policies. Different products such as aluminum, alumina, lithium carbonate, industrial silicon, and polysilicon have different trends and investment suggestions [23][24][25]. - In the agricultural product market, different products like cotton, sugar, eggs, apples, corn, dates, and pigs have different supply - demand situations and price trends, and corresponding investment strategies are proposed [27][29][32]. - The energy and chemical market is affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships, policies, and international trade. Crude oil, fuel oil, plastics, methanol, and other products have different price trends and investment suggestions [40][42][43]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro Information - China - EU relations: President Xi Jinping put forward three proposals for the future development of China - EU relations, and Premier Li Qiang hopes that the EU will provide a fair business environment for Chinese enterprises investing in Europe [8]. - Domestic policies: The National Development and Reform Commission and the State Administration for Market Regulation are soliciting opinions on the revised draft of the Price Law, and the central bank will conduct 400 billion yuan of MLF operations on July 25, with a net investment of 100 billion yuan this month [8][9]. - International news: Trump hopes that the Fed will cut interest rates; the European Central Bank maintains three major interest rates unchanged; the EU votes to impose counter - tariff measures on US products; the US and euro - zone PMI data show different trends [9][10]. Macro Finance Stock Index Futures - Strategy: Pay attention to the support of the 5 - day moving average. If it is not broken, the trend will continue. The A - share market logic continues, and the style continues to spread [12]. Treasury Bond Futures - Strategy: Consider short - selling at high levels or using treasury bond futures to reduce duration. Inflation and the money market are the core concerns of the bond market, and external factors such as the trends of stock indices and commodities should also be observed [13]. Black Spiral Steel and Iron Ore - Market view: Affected by policies, the inflation expectation through the supply - side is increasing. The market shows the characteristics of "off - season not weak". Supply is expected to remain strong, and demand may weaken marginally. Steel and ore prices may fluctuate and adjust in the short term [16][17][18]. Coking Coal and Coke - View: In the short term, due to the positive impact of macro and industrial policies, coking coal and coke prices have risen significantly. Attention should be paid to the production progress in the origin and the production situation of steel mills [18][19]. Ferroalloys - View: The fundamentals of ferrosilicon and manganese silicon are weakening. It is recommended to short at high levels during the day and pay attention to position management [19]. Soda Ash and Glass - Soda Ash: The supply has decreased due to maintenance, and the inventory has declined. The spot market is mainly in a wait - and - see state. It is recommended to avoid risks and wait and see [21]. - Glass: The market sentiment has been boosted, and the inventory has decreased. Low - position long - term holders can consider taking profits at high levels [21]. Non - ferrous and New Materials Aluminum and Alumina - Aluminum: The demand is poor, and the inventory is expected to rise. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [23]. - Alumina: Affected by policy emotions, it is in a high - volatility stage. It is recommended to wait and see. If the overall sentiment of surplus industrial products weakens, short - selling can be considered [23]. Lithium Carbonate - The price is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term. Attention should be paid to whether the production suspension expectation is realized [24]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Industrial Silicon: The supply of leading manufacturers is uncertain, and the supply - demand situation has improved marginally. It is expected to fluctuate strongly [25]. - Polysilicon: There is a contradiction between strong expectation and weak reality. Attention should be paid to the follow - up policies and the progress of warehouse receipt generation [26]. Agricultural Products Cotton - Logic and view: Cotton prices are still oscillating and rebounding. Short - term oscillating thinking and long - term short - selling at high levels are recommended [27]. Sugar - Logic and view: The domestic sugar inventory is low, but the increase in processed sugar and the decrease in import costs put downward pressure on sugar prices. The short - term trend is oscillating [29]. Eggs - View: Eggs are in a seasonal rising stage, but the supply pressure during the Mid - Autumn Festival is large. It is recommended to short on rebounds and pay attention to the 09 - 01 reverse spread combination [32]. Apples - View: Light - position positive spread trading is recommended [33]. Corn - View: Corn prices are in a range - bound oscillation. Short - term trading is recommended. Attention should be paid to the impact of policies and market supply - demand changes [34][35]. Dates - View: Light - position short - selling is recommended. Attention should be paid to the fruit - setting situation in the production area and weather changes [36]. Pigs - View: Short - selling the near - month contracts and paying attention to the 11 - 1/3 - 5 reverse spread strategy [37][38]. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - The supply is expected to exceed demand in the long term. It is recommended to short at high levels [40]. Fuel Oil - The price is weaker than that of crude oil, and the fundamentals are gradually becoming looser. Attention should be paid to the OPEC+ meeting and trade negotiations [42]. Plastics - In the short term, the market sentiment may lead to a slightly stronger performance, but the supply - demand situation is weak. It is recommended to beware of callback risks [42][43]. Methanol - Driven by the macro atmosphere, the price may be strong in the short term, but it is recommended to beware of callback risks and consider holding put options [44]. Caustic Soda - The futures price is affected by the overall commodity market. The spot market price has fluctuations, and the inventory of liquid caustic soda in Shandong is rising [44][45]. Asphalt - The price follows the trend of crude oil. The fundamentals are in the off - season, and the production and inventory are expected to decline in August [46]. Polyester Industry Chain - The overall market atmosphere is strong, and it is recommended to lightly position long - term or continue to long the PX - PTA spread [47]. Liquefied Petroleum Gas - The supply is abundant, and the demand is weak in the medium - long term. The futures price is prone to fall and difficult to rise [48].
中泰期货晨会纪要-20250725
Zhong Tai Qi Huo·2025-07-25 02:05