消费系列：下半年社零增速回落或有限

Group 1: Current Characteristics of Social Retail Growth - Social group consumption is slowly recovering, but resident consumption remains dominant, with a growth rate of 5.0% compared to 2.5% for social group consumption in Q2 2025[5] - The gap in growth rates between resident and social group consumption has narrowed from 4.2 percentage points to 2.5 percentage points in the first half of the year[5] - Social retail growth is primarily driven by commodity consumption, with commodity retail growth rising from 4.6% to 5.1% in Q2 2025, while catering retail has declined[7] Group 2: Consumer Sentiment and Policy Impact - Consumer sentiment is recovering, supported by stable employment, with the urban unemployment rate decreasing from 5.2% to 5.0% in Q2 2025[11] - The "old-for-new" policy has driven sales exceeding 2.9 trillion yuan in the first half of the year, indicating a positive impact on consumer willingness across various categories[12] - The remaining central funds for the "old-for-new" policy in the second half of the year are estimated to generate 1.4 trillion yuan in sales, comparable to last year's 1.3 trillion yuan[18] Group 3: Outlook and Risks - The growth rate of social retail may slow in the second half of the year, but the decline is expected to be limited due to the resilience of resident consumption against stricter regulations on social group dining[17] - The central government's funding for the "old-for-new" policy is expected to be distributed evenly, with 1,620 billion yuan allocated in the first half and 1,380 billion yuan planned for the second half[17] - Risks include slow recovery of consumer confidence and potential delays in policy implementation[24]