国泰君安期货所长早读-20250725

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the overall industry investment rating in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The National Development and Reform Commission and the State Administration for Market Regulation have jointly drafted the "Amendment Draft of the Price Law of the People's Republic of China (Draft for Comment)" to address "involution - style" competition, with clear definitions of dumping, expanded scope, and new regulations on data - related price behavior [8]. - For the black sector, in the short - term (1 - 3 weeks), steel is in high - level oscillation, iron ore is under pressure, and coking coal is strong; in the medium - term (1 - 3 months), black commodities face correction pressure; in the long - term (1 - 3 quarters), the center of black commodities will rise again [9][10]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. "Today's Discovery" - The revised "Price Law" aims to address "involution - style" competition, with clearer rules on low - price dumping, expanded scope to include services, and new regulations on operators' use of data and algorithms [8]. 2. "Recommended by the Director" - Black Sector: - Short - term: Steel oscillates at a high level, iron ore is under pressure, and coking coal is strong. The logic is that coking coal supply has a production - cut expectation, policy stimulus is continuous, and there is a shortage of spot liquidity. Steel mills have a demand to replenish coking coal inventory. Iron ore supply is gradually increasing, and its price is over - valued [9][10]. - Medium - term: Black commodities face correction pressure due to the cooling of the "anti - involution" policy and high valuations, along with increased supply and potential spot liquidity surpluses [10]. - Long - term: The center of black commodities will rise as real estate destocking and new construction stabilize, and global manufacturing inventory replenishment boosts demand [10]. - Strategies: Gradually take profit on the 10 - 01 reverse spread of steel; hold the 9 - 1 spread of iron ore; pay attention to opportunities to narrow the hot - rolled coil - rebar spread [10]. 3. "Commodity Research Morning Report" - Precious Metals: Gold oscillates downward, and silver breaks through and rises. Gold trend intensity is 1, and silver trend intensity is 1 [14][19][21]. - Base Metals: - Copper lacks a clear driver and oscillates. Copper trend intensity is 0 [14][23][25]. - Zinc's price weakens. Zinc trend intensity is 0 [14][26][28]. - Lead's price rebound is restricted by high domestic inventory. Lead trend intensity is 0 [14][29][30]. - Tin's price is affected by floods in Wa State. Tin trend intensity is - 1 [14][32][35]. - Aluminum oscillates in the short - term, alumina's price strengthens, and cast aluminum alloy follows electrolytic aluminum. Aluminum trend intensity is 0, alumina trend intensity is 1, and aluminum alloy trend intensity is 0 [14][37][39]. - Nickel is boosted by macro - sentiment but restricted by reality; stainless steel is dominated by macro - sentiment at the margin and determined by fundamentals in terms of elasticity. Nickel and stainless steel trend intensities are both 0 [14][40][44]. - Energy and Chemicals: - Carbonate lithium may be strong in the short - term due to increased supply - side disturbances. Carbonate lithium trend intensity is 1 [14][45][47]. - Industrial silicon's warehouse receipts are being cleared, and the market is resilient; polysilicon is affected by policy disturbances. Industrial silicon trend intensity is 0, and polysilicon trend intensity is 1 [14][49][51]. - Iron ore is supported by macro - expectations and oscillates strongly. Iron ore trend intensity is 1 [14][52][53]. - Rebar and hot - rolled coil oscillate widely. Rebar and hot - rolled coil trend intensities are both 0 [14][55][58]. - Ferrosilicon and silicomanganese oscillate widely due to rising overseas ore quotes. Ferrosilicon and silicomanganese trend intensities are both 0 [14][59][61]. - Coke's third - round price increase is implemented, and it oscillates strongly; coking coal is also strong due to supply - policy constraints. Coke and coking coal trend intensities are both 1 [14][63][65]. - Steam coal's daily consumption is recovering, and it oscillates and stabilizes. Steam coal trend intensity is 0 [14][67][70]. - Logs oscillate repeatedly [71].