申万期货品种策略日报：油脂油料-20250725

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - The Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) expects Malaysia's crude palm oil production to reach 19.5 million tons and exports to reach 17 million tons in 2025 [2] - The Indian Vegetable Oil Producers Association (IVPA) anticipates that India's palm oil imports may increase in the second half of this year, with total edible oil imports remaining at 16 million tons in the 2024/25 season ending in October [2] - As of the week ending July 22, about 8% of the US soybean - growing areas were affected by drought, up from 7% the previous week and 4% the same period last year [2] - Night - time trading of soybean and rapeseed meal showed a decline. The US soybean good - to - excellent rate dropped to 68%, lower than the expected 71%. With possible high - temperature stress in the southwest and improved export prospects, US soybean futures are expected to fluctuate in the short term. In China, due to the push for soybean meal substitution and a loose supply, Dalian soybean meal futures are weak in the short term [2] - Night - time trading of rapeseed and palm oil showed a slight decline, while soybean oil fluctuated strongly. Positive fundamentals in Indonesia and expected growth in palm oil exports to the EU in the second half of 2025 will support palm oil prices. In the medium - to - long - term, with biofuel policies, the central price of edible oils is expected to rise slowly [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Domestic Futures Market - The previous day's closing prices of domestic futures were 8166 for soybean oil, 9104 for palm oil, 9492 for rapeseed oil, 3025 for soybean meal, 2671 for rapeseed meal, and 8844 for peanuts. The price changes were 92, 110, 36, - 70, - 78, and 26 respectively, with percentage changes of 1.14%, 1.22%, - 3.15%, - 2.26%, - 2.84%, and 0.29% [1] - For spreads, the current values of Y9 - 1, P9 - 1, OI9 - 1, Y - P09, OI - Y09, and OI - P09 were 52, 44, 53, - 938, 1326, and 388 respectively, compared to previous values of 44, 20, 53, - 920, 1382, and 462 [1] - For ratio - spreads, the current values of M9 - 1, RM9 - 1, M - RM09, M/RM09, Y/M09, and Y - M09 were - 34, 270, 343, 1.13, 2.70, and 5141 respectively, compared to previous values of - 21, 314, 337, 1.12, 2.61, and 4979 [1] International Futures Market - The previous day's closing prices of international futures were 4244 (Malaysian ringgit/ton) for BMD palm oil, 1025 (cents/bushel) for CBOT soybeans, 56 (cents/pound) for CBOT US soybean oil, and 283 (US dollars/ton) for CBOT US soybean meal. The price changes were 48, 3, 0, and - 2 respectively, with percentage changes of 1.14%, 0.24%, 0.86%, and - 0.84% [1] Domestic Spot Market - The current spot prices of domestic products were 8280 and 8330 for Tianjin and Guangzhou first - grade soybean oil, 9150 and 9050 for Zhangjiagang and Guangzhou 24° palm oil, 9540 and 9460 for Zhangjiagang and Fangchenggang third - grade rapeseed oil, with percentage changes of 0.61%, 0.85%, 0.55%, 0.56%, - 0.42%, and - 0.42% respectively [1] - The current spot prices of other products were 2870 and 2890 for Nantong and Dongguan soybean meal, 2570 and 2560 for Nantong and Dongguan rapeseed meal, 7600 and 7550 for Linyi and Anyang peanuts, with percentage changes of - 2.05%, - 1.70%, - 3.38%, - 3.40%, 0.00%, and 0.00% respectively [1] - The current spot spreads were - 670 for the difference between Guangzhou first - grade soybean oil and 24° palm oil, 1350 for the difference between Zhangjiagang third - grade rapeseed oil and first - grade soybean oil, and 240 for the difference between Dongguan soybean meal and rapeseed meal, compared to previous values of - 670, 1310, and 239 respectively [1] Import and Crushing Profit - The current import and crushing profits for near - month products were - 311 for Malaysian palm oil, - 235 for US Gulf soybeans, - 62 for Brazilian soybeans, 93 for US West soybeans, 696 for Canadian crude rapeseed oil, and 369 for Canadian rapeseeds, compared to previous values of - 297, - 207, - 13, 129, 657, and 402 respectively [1] Warehouse Receipts - The current warehouse receipts were 21,695 for soybean oil, 334 for palm oil, 3,487 for rapeseed oil, 40,714 for soybean meal, 0 for rapeseed meal, and 0 for peanuts, compared to previous values of 21,695, 854, 3,487, 41,446, 0, and 0 respectively [1]