中原期货晨会纪要-20250725

1. Market Index and Commodity Price Tracking 1.1 Macro Indicators - The Dow Jones Industrial Index decreased by 0.703% to 44,693.91, the Nasdaq Index rose by 0.180% to 21,057.96, and the S&P 500 increased by 0.070% to 6,363.35. The Hang Seng Index rose by 0.506% to 25,667.18 [2]. - SHIBOR overnight increased by 19.605% to 1.64, the US Dollar Index decreased by 0.033% to 97.46, and the US Dollar to RMB (CFETS) remained unchanged [2]. 1.2 International Commodity Futures - COMEX gold decreased by 0.771% to 3,371.30, COMEX silver decreased by 0.595% to 39.29, and LME copper decreased by 0.795% to 9,854.50 [2]. 1.3 Domestic Commodity Futures - In the metal sector, domestic gold decreased by 0.085% to 778.08, silver decreased by 0.181% to 9,369.00, and copper decreased by 0.751% to 79,290.00 [2]. - In the chemical sector, coking coal increased by 2.837% to 1,232.50, natural rubber increased by 1.050% to 15,405.00, and plastic increased by 0.853% to 7,448.00 [4]. - In the agricultural product sector, yellow soybean No. 1 decreased by 0.071% to 4,221.00, and soybean meal increased by 0.132% to 3,029.00 [4]. 2. Macro News - Premier Li Qiang will attend the opening ceremony of the 2025 World Artificial Intelligence Conference and deliver a speech on July 26 [6]. - The Ministry of Commerce will take measures to combat strategic mineral smuggling and export, including establishing a joint law - enforcement coordination center for dual - use item export control [6]. - President Xi Jinping put forward three proposals for the future development of China - EU relations during a meeting with European leaders [6]. - The central bank and the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs issued an opinion to strengthen financial services for rural reform and promote rural revitalization [6]. - The National Development and Reform Commission has basically allocated 735 billion yuan of central budgetary investment in 2025, focusing on modern industrial systems, infrastructure, urbanization, and rural revitalization [6]. - The central bank will conduct 400 billion yuan of MLF operations on July 25, with a net investment of 100 billion yuan this month [7]. - During the 14th Five - Year Plan period, the national basic medical insurance participation rate remained stable at around 95%, and the cumulative balance of the medical insurance pooling fund reached 3.86 trillion yuan by the end of 2024 [7]. 3. Morning Meeting Views on Major Varieties 3.1 Agricultural Products - Peanut market prices are stable, with a weak supply - demand pattern. In the short term, it is expected to fluctuate strongly but maintain a downward trend [10]. - The trading volume of edible oils increased significantly on July 10. The market is expected to fluctuate in the near future [10]. - The sugar futures market is in a state of long - short confrontation. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 5,850 - 5,900 yuan/ton. High - selling and low - buying within the range are recommended [10]. - Corn futures prices are in a narrow - range oscillation. It is recommended to take a range - oscillation approach and pay attention to the breakthrough of the 2,320 - 2,330 yuan/ton range [10]. - The supply of live pigs exceeds demand, and short - term price increases lack sustainability. After the futures price repairs the basis, it will maintain an oscillatory trend [12]. - Egg prices are stable. Upstream inventory is low, and downstream demand is strong. However, the futures market is under selling pressure due to the approaching delivery month [12]. 3.2 Energy and Chemicals - The price of caustic soda has increased significantly this week. It is recommended to pay attention to the 9 - 11 reverse spread [12]. - The urea market shows a pattern of decreasing supply and demand. It is necessary to pay attention to macro - policy impacts and the progress of autumn fertilizers [12]. 3.3 Industrial Metals - Copper prices are oscillating at a high level due to tight supply, weak demand, and uncertain macro - policies [13]. - Aluminum prices are expected to oscillate at a high level due to increased supply, off - season consumption, and policy sentiment [13]. - Alumina prices have rebounded significantly this week. It is necessary to be vigilant against increased short - term fluctuations [13]. - The supply - demand contradiction of steel products is not prominent. Steel prices are mainly affected by macro - sentiment and raw material trends [13]. - The performance of ferroalloys was weak on Thursday. It is not advisable to chase high prices. It is recommended to wait for important meetings and policy implementation [14]. - The prices of coking coal and coke are maintaining a strong pattern in the short term [14]. - The price of lithium carbonate futures has significantly increased. It is recommended to pay attention to the effectiveness of breaking through the 76,000 yuan/ton key pressure level [14]. 3.4 Options and Finance - On July 24, the three major A - share indexes rose collectively. It is recommended to pay attention to the low - buying opportunities of IF, IM, and IC, and conduct high - selling and low - buying operations [14][15][16]. - The trading volume and open interest of stock index futures and options have changed. Trend investors can focus on inter - variety strength - weakness arbitrage opportunities, and volatility investors can buy straddles to bet on increased volatility [17][18].