生猪：反套结构形成

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The current period is the off - season for consumption, with limited downstream digestion capacity. Although large - scale farms have not increased supply, some small - scale farmers are more willing to sell, leading to a rapid decline in spot prices. The market expects prices to rise from late July to early August, which may cause more concentrated sales and keep the spot market weak. The macro sentiment is strong recently, but the premium on the futures market has increased, and hedging profits have risen significantly. Piglet purchases will enter the off - season in August, and the 03 contract will enter the piglet pricing period, where production capacity and cost logic may have an impact. Attention should be paid to stop - loss and take - profit. The short - term support level for the LH2509 contract is 13,500 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 15,000 yuan/ton [6] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Pig Fundamental Data - Spot Prices: Henan's spot price is 14,230 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton year - on - year; Sichuan's is 13,650 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton; and Guangdong's is 15,440 yuan/ton, down 250 yuan/ton [4] - Futures Prices: The price of the生猪2509 contract is 14,365 yuan/ton, down 225 yuan/ton year - on - year; the生猪2511 contract is 14,210 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan/ton; and the生猪2601 contract is 14,550 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan/ton [4] - Trading Volume and Open Interest: The trading volume of the生猪2509 contract is 79,187 lots, down 42,372 lots from the previous day, and the open interest is 62,464 lots, down 4,839 lots; the生猪2511 contract has a trading volume of 21,662 lots, down 22,162 lots, and an open interest of 46,374 lots, down 732 lots; the生猪2601 contract has a trading volume of 27,110 lots, down 22,001 lots, and an open interest of 39,822 lots, up 1,068 lots [4] - Price Spreads: The basis of the生猪2509 contract is - 135 yuan/ton, up 125 yuan/ton year - on - year; the生猪2511 contract's basis is 20 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; the生猪2601 contract's basis is - 320 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; the 9 - 11 spread is 155 yuan/ton, down 135 yuan/ton; and the 11 - 1 spread is - 340 yuan/ton, unchanged [4] 2. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity is 0, with a range of [- 2,2]. - 2 represents the most bearish view, and 2 represents the most bullish view [5]