白糖：情绪偏多

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the sugar industry is bullish sentiment [1] Core Viewpoints - The global sugar market in the 24/25 season is expected to face a supply shortage, and the domestic market also has a supply - demand gap, but the specific situation varies by region [2][3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - The raw sugar price is 16.57 cents per pound, with a year - on - year increase of 0.33; the mainstream spot price is 6,030 yuan per ton, a year - on - year decrease of 10; the futures main contract price is 5,866 yuan per ton, a year - on - year increase of 32. The 91 spread is 198 yuan per ton, a year - on - year increase of 20; the 15 spread is 53 yuan per ton, a year - on - year increase of 2; the mainstream spot basis is 164 yuan per ton, a year - on - year decrease of 42 [1] Macro and Industry News - Pakistan has approved the import of 500,000 tons of sugar; the sugarcane crushing progress in central - southern Brazil is still slow, but the MIX is significantly higher year - on - year; the monsoon precipitation in India is higher than the long - period average (LPA); Brazil exported 3.36 million tons of sugar in June, a 5% year - on - year increase; China imported 420,000 tons of sugar in June [1] Domestic Market - CAOC predicts that the domestic sugar production in the 24/25 season will be 11.16 million tons, consumption will be 15.8 million tons, and imports will be 5 million tons; in the 25/26 season, production will be 11.2 million tons, consumption will be 15.9 million tons, and imports will be 5 million tons. As of the end of May in the 24/25 season, the national sugar production was 11.16 million tons (+1.2 million tons), cumulative sales were 8.11 million tons (+1.52 million tons), and the cumulative sales rate was 72.7%. As of the end of June, the 24/25 season imports were 2.51 million tons (-650,000 tons) [2] International Market - ISO predicts a global sugar supply shortage of 5.47 million tons in the 24/25 season (previously a shortage of 4.88 million tons). As of July 1 in the 25/26 season, the cumulative sugarcane crushing volume in central - southern Brazil decreased by 14 percentage points year - on - year, with cumulative sugar production of 12.25 million tons (-2.04 million tons), and the cumulative MIX was 51.02%, a 2.33 - percentage - point increase year - on - year. As of May 15 in the 24/25 season, India's sugar production was 25.74 million tons (-5.8 million tons), and Thailand's cumulative sugar production was 10.08 million tons (+1.27 million tons) [3] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of sugar is 0, indicating a neutral stance [4]