中辉有色观点-20250725

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: High-level adjustment, long-term strategic allocation [1] - Silver: Bullish [1] - Copper: Bounce under pressure, long-term optimistic [1] - Zinc: Bounce under pressure, long-term supply increase and demand decrease [1] - Lead: Bounce under pressure [1] - Tin: Bounce under pressure [1] - Aluminum: Bounce under pressure [1] - Nickel: Bounce under pressure [1] - Industrial silicon: Cautiously bullish [1] - Polysilicon: Cautiously bullish [1] - Lithium carbonate: Bullish [1] Core Views - Some tariffs have been implemented, reducing the safe-haven sentiment, leading to an adjustment in gold and silver prices. However, the strong long-term support factors for gold, such as a weak US dollar, interest rate cuts, debt issuance, and central bank gold purchases, still exist [2] - The copper market is affected by a rebound in the US dollar index, with high-level consolidation. In the long term, the tight global copper ore supply and its strategic importance support a positive outlook [5] - The zinc market faces supply surplus and demand weakness during the off-season, with prices under pressure. Long-term, there are opportunities to short on rallies [8] - The aluminum market is pressured by inventory accumulation, and the price rebound is limited. Alumina also shows a similar trend [11] - The nickel market is suppressed by supply factors, and the price is under pressure. Stainless steel also faces inventory pressure during the off-season [13] - The lithium carbonate market is influenced by supply disruptions, and the price remains strong. Low-buying strategies are recommended [14] Summary by Variety Gold - Core view: High-level adjustment, long-term strategic allocation [1] - Main logic: Short-term tariff risks have landed, reducing the risk and causing a price adjustment. However, Powell's pressure, a medium-term weak US dollar trend, and loose monetary policies of multiple countries, along with continued central bank gold purchases, support long-term investment [1] - Price range: 770 - 794 [1] Silver - Core view: Bullish [1] - Main logic: Supported by economic demand, with increased industrial and physical demand due to loose fiscal policies. Short-term, it is affected by gold's adjustment sentiment [1] - Price range: 9250 - 9550 [1] Copper - Core view: Bounce under pressure, long-term optimistic [1] - Main logic: The US dollar index rebounds, and domestic social copper inventories have decreased seasonally. In the long term, the tight global copper ore supply and its strategic importance support a positive outlook [1][6] - Price range: Shanghai copper 78500 - 80500; London copper 9700 - 10000 USD/ton [7] Zinc - Core view: Bounce under pressure, long-term supply increase and demand decrease [1] - Main logic: In 2025, zinc concentrate supply is abundant, and new smelting capacity is being released. Demand is weak during the off-season [9] - Price range: Shanghai zinc 22600 - 23200; London zinc 2750 - 2950 USD/ton [10] Lead - Core view: Bounce under pressure [1] - Main logic: Affected by maintenance in domestic primary lead smelters and increased losses in secondary lead enterprises, with high social inventories [1] - Price range: 16500 - 17200 [1] Tin - Core view: Bounce under pressure [1] - Main logic: Slow resumption of production in Myanmar's Wa State tin mines during the rainy season, with weak supply and demand in the domestic market and inventory accumulation [1] - Price range: 265000 - 273000 [1] Aluminum - Core view: Bounce under pressure [1] - Main logic: Disturbance from overseas bauxite news, inventory accumulation in domestic aluminum ingots and aluminum rods, and weakening开工率 in the aluminum processing industry [1][11] - Price range: 20500 - 21000 [1] Nickel - Core view: Bounce under pressure [1] - Main logic: Stable overseas nickel ore prices, slowdown in downstream stainless steel production cuts, and inventory accumulation during the off-season [1][13] - Price range: 122000 - 124000 [1] Industrial Silicon - Core view: Cautiously bullish [1] - Main logic: The market is strongly influenced by policies, with an increase in southwest开工率 and stable demand [1] - Price range: 9600 - 10000 [1] Polysilicon - Core view: Cautiously bullish [1] - Main logic: The "sales price not lower than cost" provides strong support, with little change in fundamentals and positive market sentiment [1] - Price range: 51000 - 56000 [1] Lithium Carbonate - Core view: Bullish [1] - Main logic: Little change in fundamentals, sensitive to positive news, and influenced by supply disruptions. Technical indicators are strong [1][15] - Price range: 75000 - 80000 [1]