集运指数（欧线）：10-12和10-02反套持有

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information is provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The container shipping index showed a strong and volatile trend yesterday. The main 2510 contract closed at 1583.9 points, up 3.73%, with an increase of 455 lots; the second main 2512 contract closed at 1779.9 points, with an increase of 295 lots; the near - month 2508 contract closed at 2249.9 points, up 10 points, with a decrease of 1355 lots [9]. - In terms of spot freight rates, Evergreen and MSC plan to increase rates by $200/FEU in early August, while MSK will decrease rates by $100 - 200/FEU, and the PA Alliance's average quoted price will decrease by $200/FEU. Overall, freight rates in early August show signs of peaking, with the average static quoted price in week 32 around $3360/FEU [10]. - Fundamentally, the average weekly shipping capacity in August is 321,000 TEU/week. The number of undetermined voyages in September has decreased from 7 to 5. Without considering undetermined voyages, the average weekly shipping capacity in September has been revised up from 299,000 to 306,000 TEU/week. It is expected that the cargo volume in early August may remain resilient, and Christmas orders may be gradually shipped out in early August. There is a certain probability that the inflection point of market cargo volume will appear in mid - to - late August. The fundamental trading logic remains to go short on rallies. In the short term, capital - level games are the core driver. The EC2512 and far - month contracts have relatively low positions and relatively large increases. It is expected that the 2510 contract may rise first and then fall; strategies include holding the 10 - 12 and 10 - 02 reverse spreads [11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Conditions of Container Shipping Index Futures | Contract | Closing Price | Daily Increase | Position Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | EC2508 | 2,249.9 | 1.47% | - 1,355 | | EC2510 | 1,583.9 | 3.73% | + 455 | | EC2512 | 1,779.9 | 5.45% | + 295 | [1] 3.2 Freight Rate Index | Freight Rate Index | Current Value | Unit | Weekly Increase | Bi - weekly Increase | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SCFIS: European Route | 2,400.50 | points | - 0.9% | - | | SCFIS: US West Route | 1,301.81 | points | 2.8% | - | | SCFI: European Route | 2,079 | $/TEU | - | - 1.0% | | SCFI: US West Route | 2,142 | $/FEU | - | - 2.4% | [1] 3.3 Spot Freight Rates - In early August, Evergreen and MSC plan to increase rates by $200/FEU, MSK will decrease rates by $100 - 200/FEU, and the PA Alliance's average quoted price will decrease by $200/FEU. The average static quoted price in week 32 is around $3360/FEU [10]. 3.4 Shipping Capacity - The average weekly shipping capacity in August is 321,000 TEU/week. The number of undetermined voyages in September has decreased from 7 to 5. Without considering undetermined voyages, the average weekly shipping capacity in September has been revised up from 299,000 to 306,000 TEU/week [11]. 3.5 Macro News - Xi Jinping met with European Council President Costa and European Commission President von der Leyen [8]. - The US withdrew from the Doha cease - fire negotiations between Israel and Hamas [8]. - The European Central Bank kept its three key interest rates unchanged, warning of a highly uncertain external environment, and President Lagarde did not rule out the possibility of future interest rate hikes [8]. - The EU passed a €93 billion counter - tariff plan against the US, which will take effect on August 7 if no agreement is reached [8].