国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-20250725

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings The report does not provide industry investment ratings. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report presents the market trends and forecasts of various commodities on July 25, 2025, including precious metals, base metals, energy, and agricultural products. Each commodity has its own unique trend influenced by factors such as supply - demand, macro - economic news, and policy changes [2][4]. 3. Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - Gold: Expected to oscillate and decline, with a trend strength of 1 [2][7][9]. - Silver: Expected to break through and rise, with a trend strength of 1 [2][7][9]. Base Metals - Copper: Lacks a clear driving force, with prices in a state of oscillation. The trend strength is 0 [2][11][13]. - Zinc: Prices are turning weak, and the trend strength is 0 [2][14][16]. - Lead: High domestic total inventory restricts price rebounds, and the trend strength is 0 [2][17][18]. - Tin: Prices are disturbed by floods in Wa State. The trend strength is - 1 [2][20][23]. - Aluminum: Short - term oscillation. Aluminum oxide prices are strengthening, and cast aluminum alloy follows electrolytic aluminum. The trend strengths are 0 for aluminum, 1 for aluminum oxide, and 0 for cast aluminum alloy [2][25][27]. - Nickel: Macro - sentiment boosts expectations, but reality limits elasticity. The trend strength is 0. Stainless steel is dominated by macro - sentiment at the margin, and fundamentals determine elasticity, with a trend strength of 0 [2][28][32]. Energy - related Commodities - Carbonate Lithium: Supply - side disturbances intensify, and it may be strong in the short term, with a trend strength of 1 [2][33][35]. - Industrial Silicon: Warehouse receipts are being cleared, and the market shows resistance to decline. The trend strength is 0. Polysilicon is affected more by policy disturbances, and attention should be paid to the upside space, with a trend strength of 1 [2][37][39]. - Iron Ore: Supported by macro - expectations, it oscillates strongly, with a trend strength of 1 [2][40][41]. - Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil: Both are in a state of wide - range oscillation, with trend strengths of 0 for rebar and 0 for hot - rolled coil [2][43][46]. - Silicon Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silico - Manganese: Overseas mining companies' quotation increases lead to wide - range oscillations, with trend strengths of 0 for both [2][47][49]. - Coke: After three rounds of price increases, it oscillates strongly, with a trend strength of 1. Coking coal has strengthened supply - policy expectation constraints and oscillates strongly, with a trend strength of 1 [2][51][53]. - Steam Coal: Daily consumption is recovering, and it oscillates and stabilizes, with a trend strength of 0 [2][55][58]. Others - Log: Oscillates repeatedly [2][59].