申银万国期货首席点评：美国总统首次造访美联储，国内反内卷政策持续推进

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The A - share market has a relatively high investment cost - performance in the medium - to - long term. The CSI 500 and CSI 1000 may offer higher returns due to more science and technology innovation policies, while the SSE 50 and SSE 300 are more defensive in the current macro - environment [11]. - The bond market may continue to weaken in the short term, especially the long - term treasury bond futures prices will fluctuate more significantly [12]. - The prices of some commodities are driven by the "anti - involution" policy, and the expected increase in industrial product prices is rising [12]. - The steel market has a weak supply - demand situation with little change in inventory, and steel prices are expected to be volatile and slightly stronger in the short term [3][24]. - The prices of coking coal are likely to continue rising in the short term but may peak after late August [2][25]. - The prices of crude oil are affected by geopolitical factors and trade agreements, and the subsequent OPEC production increase situation needs attention [3][13]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Main News on the Day - International News: The European Central Bank kept its three major interest rates unchanged, pausing rate cuts for the first time after eight consecutive cuts since June last year. It cited "trade disputes" as the main source of policy uncertainty [5]. - Domestic News: The National Development and Reform Commission and the State Administration for Market Regulation solicited public opinions on the draft amendment to the Price Law, aiming to improve the standards for identifying unfair price behaviors and regulate market price order [6]. - Industry News: In the first half of the year, China's gold production was 252.761 tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.44%, while gold consumption was 505.205 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.54%. The increase in domestic gold ETF positions was 84.771 tons, a year - on - year increase of 173.73% [7]. 3.2 Daily Returns of Overseas Markets - The S&P 500 rose 0.07%, the European STOXX 50 rose 0.12%, and the FTSE China A50 futures fell 0.11%. The US dollar index rose 0.29%. Among commodities, SC crude oil rose 0.56%, ICE Brent crude rose 1.00%, London gold fell 0.55%, and London silver fell 0.48% [8]. 3.3 Morning Comments on Major Varieties - Financial Products - Stock Index: The A - share market is expected to see an increase in the proportion of medium - and long - term funds, which is conducive to reducing market volatility. The policy signal is clear, and the valuation is starting to recover [10][11]. - Treasury Bonds: Treasury bonds continued to fall. Due to factors such as the central bank's net capital withdrawal, unchanged LPR, and improved consumer confidence in the US, the bond market may continue to weaken in the short term [12]. - Energy and Chemical Products - Crude Oil: SC crude oil rose at night. The US - EU trade agreement is approaching, and geopolitical tensions remain a focus. Attention should be paid to OPEC's production increase [3][13]. - Methanol: Methanol rose at night. The operating rate of coal - to - olefin plants increased slightly, while the overall methanol plant operating rate decreased. Coastal inventories increased. Methanol is expected to be slightly bullish in the short term [14]. - Polyolefins: Polyolefins continued to rebound. The market is focused on the supply - demand situation, and the improvement of the supply - demand situation needs time [15]. - Glass and Soda Ash: Glass and soda ash futures rebounded significantly. The supply of both decreased during the summer maintenance period, and inventories declined. It is recommended to wait and see due to high short - term market enthusiasm [16]. - Rubber: Rubber prices rose on Thursday. Supply - side factors support prices, but demand is weak. Prices may be volatile in the short term [17]. - Metals - Precious Metals: Gold and silver prices have been falling. The trade situation has improved, reducing risk - aversion sentiment. However, long - term factors still support gold prices, and silver is relatively strong due to industrial product support [18]. - Copper: Copper prices fell at night. The processing fee of concentrates is low, and downstream demand is mixed. Copper prices may fluctuate within a range [19]. - Zinc: Zinc prices fell at night. The processing fee of concentrates has increased. The supply of concentrates is expected to improve, and zinc prices may fluctuate widely in the short term [20]. - Lithium Carbonate: Lithium carbonate prices rose significantly due to the issue of mining qualifications in Jiangxi. Although there is still room for sentiment fermentation, the fundamentals are under pressure. The price may be strong in the short term but lacks a medium - term reversal basis [21][22]. - Black Metals - Iron Ore: The demand for iron ore is supported by the relatively good profit of steel mills. The global iron ore shipment has decreased recently, and the port inventory is decreasing rapidly. Iron ore prices are expected to be volatile and slightly stronger in the short term [23]. - Steel: The supply pressure of the steel market is gradually emerging, but the supply - demand contradiction is not significant. Steel prices are expected to be volatile and slightly stronger in the short term [3][24]. - Coking Coal and Coke: The daily average pig iron output of blast furnaces rebounded, and coking coal and coke inventories changed. The prices are likely to rise further in the short term but may peak after late August [2][25]. - Agricultural Products - Soybean and Rapeseed Meal: US soybean prices are expected to be volatile in the short term. Domestic soybean meal prices are expected to be weak due to the promotion of soybean meal substitution and sufficient supply [26]. - Oils and Fats: Palm oil prices are expected to be supported by the improvement of the Indonesian market and the expected increase in exports to the EU. The medium - to - long - term price center of oils and fats is expected to rise slowly [27]. - Shipping Index - Container Shipping to Europe: The EC index rebounded. The freight rate of the European line is approaching its peak, and the peak season inflection point may be approaching, but the extent and slope of the subsequent freight rate adjustment are uncertain [28].