Changjiang Securities·2025-07-25 02:19Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the home appliance industry [11]. Core Insights - The 2025 national subsidy for home appliances is expected to boost industry performance, with a significant increase in subsidy duration and coverage, leading to sustained high industry sentiment [3][9]. - The report anticipates that the demand for home appliances will remain robust due to a large number of appliances reaching their safety usage limits that have not yet been replaced [3][9]. Policy Overview - The 2025 national subsidy program extends from 4 months to 12 months, covering the peak season for air conditioners and expanding the types of subsidized products to include small appliances and cleaning devices [6][17]. - The total subsidy amount for the "old for new" policy has increased from 150 billion to 300 billion yuan [6][17]. Performance Review - As of May 31, 2025, approximately 49.86 million consumers purchased 77.618 million units of 12 major categories of home appliances, with an estimated sales revenue of about 262 billion yuan [7][27]. - The home appliance retail sales growth from January to May 2025 was 30.2%, significantly outperforming the overall retail sales growth of consumer goods [7][27]. Future Outlook - Without subsidies, the expected growth rates for air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines in 2025 are projected at 2.0%, -0.8%, and 5.1%, respectively. However, with a conservative estimate of 80 billion yuan in subsidy funds, these growth rates could increase to 10.6%, 3.7%, and 7.7% [8][9]. - The report suggests that the impact of the subsidy on future demand will be limited due to the high number of appliances that have reached their replacement age [8][9]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on high-quality leading companies with certain growth prospects, such as Gree Electric Appliances, Midea Group, and Hisense Home Appliances, which are expected to benefit from domestic sales trends driven by subsidies [9][12]. - Companies with exposure to the U.S. market and strong brand power, such as Anker Innovations and Roborock, are also highlighted for their potential recovery [9][12].