煤炭行业“反内卷”与上一轮供给侧对比

Industry Investment Rating - The rating for both thermal coal and coking coal is "Bullish" [6] Core Viewpoints - Since June 2025, the "anti-involution" policy has spread to the coal industry, leading to a rapid reversal in coal prices, especially for coking coal. The main coking coal contract has risen by over 70% from the mid-June bottom. The coal overproduction verification is expected to cause a decline in Q3 coal production [2][9]. - The current coal "anti-involution" policy is much weaker than the 2016 supply-side reform in terms of policy intensity and demand-side support. Long-term coal prices still face pressure in price transmission, while short-term price elasticity is mainly due to the backlash of consistent "shorting energy varieties" capital behavior [3]. - Considering the implementation of production control policies, the overall coal production is expected to decrease by 1 - 2% quarter-on-quarter. Thermal coal prices are expected to bottom out early and return to the NDRC's long-term agreement price. For coking coal, the low point for the year has passed, and the upward price trend remains unchanged, but it may return to fundamentals later [4]. Summary by Directory 1. "Anti-involution" Spreads to the Coal Industry, and the Coal Overproduction Control Document is Issued in July - Since June 2025, the "anti-involution" policy has spread to the coal industry, with coking coal prices leading the reversal. As of July 24, the main coking coal contract reached 1,232 yuan/ton, a cumulative increase of over 70% from the mid-June bottom [2][9]. - On July 22, the National Energy Administration issued a notice to verify coal mine production and control overproduction. The verification covers about 90% of the country's major coal-producing areas. Local coal enterprises need to complete self-inspections by August 15, and national inspections will be conducted in September. The Q3 coal production is expected to decline quarter-on-quarter [9][10]. 2. Comparison between the Current Coal "Anti-involution" and the 2016 Supply-side Policy - The current coal supply-side policy is much weaker than the 2016 coal and steel supply-side reform in terms of policy urgency, specific measures, and the involved departments. There is also a lack of corresponding demand-side stimulus measures [3][15]. - The long-term effectiveness of the current "anti-involution" policy needs to be observed. With weak domestic and foreign demand, long-term coal price rebound still faces resistance. Short-term price elasticity is mainly due to the backlash of consistent "shorting energy varieties" capital behavior [3][16]. 3. Impact of the Policy on Thermal Coal - In the first half of 2025, thermal coal prices decreased by 150 yuan to a minimum of 620 yuan/ton due to the impact of new energy power generation. After the seasonal peak in power consumption in June, thermal coal prices stabilized seasonally [18]. - Considering the implementation of production control policies, the overall coal production is expected to decrease by 1 - 2% quarter-on-quarter. Thermal coal prices are expected to bottom out early and return to the NDRC's long-term agreement price of 675 yuan/ton (5,500 kcal) [4][19]. 4. Impact of the Policy on Coking Coal - In the first half of this year, coking coal supply increased significantly year-on-year, leading to a rapid accumulation of inventory and a unilateral decline in prices. With the issuance of the verification notice, the coking coal supply has reached its peak, and production may decline quarter-on-quarter in the second half of the year [27]. - Although there is a risk of demand decline, the domestic supply contraction means the low point for the year has passed, and the upward price trend remains unchanged. However, due to the high recent rally sentiment, prices may return to fundamentals later [30].