中信期货晨报：国内商品期货多数上涨，黑色系涨幅居前-20250725

Report Title - Domestic commodity futures mostly rose, with the black sector leading the gains - CITIC Futures Morning Report 20250725 [1] Core Viewpoints - Overseas fundamentals are relatively stable, but the potential new Fed Chair's stance may affect interest - rate cut expectations. The US tariff policies are expected to be finalized in early August. Domestically, the Q2 economic data shows resilience, and there are expectations for policy - driven growth, especially in Q4. Domestic assets present structural opportunities, and long - term weak - dollar trend is expected [7]. Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the report Summary by Directory 1. Macro Highlights - Overseas Macro: US consumer confidence improved in June, leading to a slight rebound in CPI and retail sales. The potential Fed Chair nominees generally advocate for interest - rate cuts, with nominations expected between Oct - Dec 2025. US tariff policies may be finalized on Aug 1 and 12, with uncertainties remaining [7]. - Domestic Macro: China's Q2 GDP grew 5.2% year - on - year, and June exports rose 5.8% year - on - year, better than expected. High - frequency data shows an increase in infrastructure investment. As the Politburo meeting approaches, there are expectations for policies to boost domestic demand, with more incremental policies likely in Q4 [7]. - Asset Views: Domestic assets have structural opportunities. Overseas, attention should be paid to tariff frictions, Fed policies, and geopolitical risks. A long - term weak - dollar trend is expected, and strategic allocation to resources like gold and copper is recommended [7] 2. Viewpoint Highlights Financial Sector - Stock Index Futures: There is no need to overly worry about market adjustments, with expectations of incremental funds. The short - term outlook is for a volatile upward trend [9]. - Stock Index Options: Volatility is increasing, but market sentiment remains positive. However, option liquidity is deteriorating, and the short - term is expected to be volatile [9]. - Treasury Bond Futures: Bond market sentiment is weak. Key factors include unexpected tariff policies, supply, and monetary easing. The short - term outlook is volatile [9] Precious Metals - Gold and silver are in a short - term adjustment phase. Key factors include Trump's tariff policies and Fed's monetary policy. The short - term outlook is volatile [9] Shipping - For container shipping on the Europe route, attention is on the balance between peak - season expectations and price - increase implementation. Key factors are tariff policies and shipping companies' pricing strategies. The short - term outlook is volatile [9] Black Building Materials - Steel and Iron Ore: Market sentiment is cooling, and price increases are slowing. Key factors include the progress of special - bond issuance, steel exports, iron - water production, and overseas mine production. The short - term outlook is volatile [9] - Coke: The second round of price increases has been fully implemented, and price increases are moderating. Key factors are steel - mill production, coking costs, and macro sentiment. The short - term outlook is volatile [9] - Coking Coal: There are strong expectations for anti - cut - throat competition policies, and prices continue to rise. Key factors are steel - mill production, coal - mine safety inspections, and macro sentiment. The short - term outlook is volatile [9] Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - Copper: An anti - cut - throat competition plan for non - ferrous metals is about to be introduced, providing support for copper prices. Key factors are supply disruptions, domestic policies, Fed policies, and demand recovery. The short - term outlook is volatile [9] - Aluminum Oxide: Market sentiment is fluctuating, and prices are adjusting at high levels. Key factors are slower - than - expected ore production resumption, faster - than - expected electrolytic aluminum production resumption, and extreme market trends. The short - term outlook is volatile [9] - Aluminum: The boost in sentiment is weakening, and prices are falling. Key factors are macro risks, supply disruptions, and demand shortfalls. The short - term outlook is volatile [9] Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: Prices are under pressure at high levels, and geopolitical factors are key. The short - term outlook is volatile [11] - LPG: The fundamental situation remains loose, and prices follow the cost side. The short - term outlook is volatile [11] - Asphalt: Main - producer spot prices are falling, and futures prices are adjusting due to high valuations. The short - term outlook is downward [11] - High - Sulfur Fuel Oil: There is significant downward pressure on prices. Key factors are crude - oil and natural - gas prices. The short - term outlook is downward [11] - Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil: Prices are following crude - oil prices and weakening. Key factors are crude - oil and natural - gas prices. The short - term outlook is downward [11] Agriculture - Pig: Market sentiment is cooling, with near - term prices weak and far - term prices strong. Key factors are breeding sentiment, epidemics, and policies. The short - term outlook is for a volatile increase [11] - Rubber: Market bullish sentiment persists, and prices are oscillating at high levels. Key factors are weather in production areas, raw - material prices, and macro changes. The short - term outlook is for a volatile increase [11] - Synthetic Rubber: The market is in an adjustment phase. Key factor is significant crude - oil price fluctuations. The short - term outlook is for a volatile increase [11]