天然与合成橡胶日评：天然橡胶震荡偏强台成橡胶震荡偏强-20250725

Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - Natural rubber prices may fluctuate strongly due to the armed conflict between Thailand and Cambodia. Synthetic rubber prices may also fluctuate strongly supported by the improved macro - atmosphere and rising raw material costs. Attention should be paid to the support and pressure levels of natural rubber and butadiene [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Data of Natural Rubber Futures Active Contracts - On July 24, 2025, the closing price was 15,245, a change of 240 from the previous day. The trading volume was 522,391 lots, and the open interest was 210,844 lots. The registered warrant volume was 186,680, a decrease of 20 from the previous day. The natural rubber basis was - 270, a decrease of 240 from the previous day [1]. 2. Market Data of Synthetic Rubber Futures Active Contracts - On July 24, 2025, the closing price was 12,285, an increase of 410 from the previous day. The trading volume was 148,642 lots, and the open interest was 48,828 lots. The registered warrant volume was 9,840, unchanged from the previous day. The synthetic rubber basis was - 535, a decrease of 343.33 from the previous day [1]. 3. Supply - side Situation - In the coming days, the weather in major natural rubber - producing areas such as Thailand and Vietnam will be stable with less precipitation, while Indonesia will have more precipitation. In domestic producing areas, there will be precipitation in Guangdong, Guangxi, Hainan, and Yunnan. As of July 24, 2025, the weekly capacity utilization rate of cis - butadiene rubber was 66.43%, an increase of 3.21% from last week, and that of styrene - butadiene rubber was 78.79%, unchanged from last week [1]. 4. Inventory - side Situation - As of July 18, 2025, the total weekly warrant inventory of natural rubber on the SHFE was 212,920 tons, a decrease of 670 tons from last week. The weekly social inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao was 13,700 tons, a decrease of 1,200 tons from last week, and the bonded area inventory was 91,900 tons, a decrease of 700 tons from last week. As of July 24, 2025, the weekly social inventory of cis - butadiene rubber was 12,796 tons, an increase of 150 tons from last week [1]. 5. Cost - side Situation - The global natural rubber supply has entered the production - increasing period, and major domestic and foreign producing areas are fully tapped. As of July 24, 2025, the purchase price of latex in the Songkhla market in Thailand was 55.3 baht per kilogram, unchanged from the previous day. The daily purchase price of natural rubber latex in the Hainan market was 15,600 yuan per ton, an increase of 150 yuan per ton from the previous day. For synthetic rubber, the short - term contradiction in crude oil is not prominent, and the oil price volatility has returned to shock. The price of upstream raw material butadiene has increased [1]. 6. Demand - side Situation - As of July 24, 2025, the weekly operating load rate of all - steel tires in Shandong was 65.00%, a decrease of 0.08% from last week, and that of semi - steel tires in China was 76.58%, a decrease of 0.12% from last week. According to the Passenger Car Association, from June 1 - 30, the retail sales of the national automobile market were 2.804 million vehicles, an increase of 217,700 vehicles from the previous month. The sales volume of passenger cars in June was 2.536 million vehicles, an increase of 184,300 vehicles from the previous month, and the sales volume of trucks in China in June was 316,000 vehicles, an increase of 24,500 vehicles from the previous month. The tire matching demand has increased [1]. 7. Price Support and Pressure Levels - For natural rubber, pay attention to the support level around 14,000 - 14,200 and the pressure level around 16,000 - 16,300. For butadiene, pay attention to the support level around 11,300 - 11,600 and the pressure level around 12,600 - 12,800 [1].