20250725申万期货品种策略日报：贵金属-20250725

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - With recent positive trade progress, gold and silver prices have continuously declined. Before the new tariff deadline, there was a peak in negotiations. After the US and Japan reached a trade agreement, multiple media reported that the US and the EU are expected to reach a preliminary agreement on imposing a 15% tariff, cooling the risk - aversion sentiment. US CPI has rebounded, further cooling the short - term expectation of interest rate cuts. Although the impact of the US tariff policy shown by economic data is smaller than feared, the subsequent impact may gradually increase. In addition, the implementation of the "Big and Beautiful" bill continues to boost the expectation of the US fiscal deficit, and the People's Bank of China continues to increase its gold holdings. The long - term drivers for gold still provide support, but the price is high and the upward movement is hesitant. Silver is showing strength driven by industrial products. Gold and silver may continue to show a volatile and slightly upward trend [4] Group 3: Summary of Related Catalogs Futures Market - Prices and Changes: For futures contracts such as Shanghai Gold 2508, 2512 and Shanghai Silver 2508, 2512, there were small declines in prices with the largest decline being - 0.18% for Shanghai Silver 2512. In the spot market, London Gold and London Silver also decreased, with London Gold dropping by - 1.66% [2] - Position and Volume: The positions and trading volumes of different futures contracts vary. For example, the position of Shanghai Gold 2512 is 110,694 and the trading volume is 46,395 [2] - Spread and Ratio: The current values of spreads such as Shanghai Gold 2512 - Shanghai Gold 2506 and ratios like gold/silver have changed compared to previous values [2] Inventory - The inventories of gold and silver in different exchanges have changed. For example, the Shanghai Futures Exchange's gold inventory increased by 501 kg, and the COMEX silver inventory decreased by 402,925 [2] Related Market Indicators - The US dollar index, S&P index, US Treasury yield, Brent crude oil price, and the US dollar - RMB exchange rate all have their current values and changes. For example, the US dollar index is currently 97.4884, up 0.29% [2] ETF and CFTC Positions - The positions of SPDR Gold ETF and SLV Silver ETF both increased by 1 ton. The net position of CFTC speculators in silver increased by 481, while that in gold decreased by 1,451 [2] Macro News - US President Trump visited the Federal Reserve and pressured for interest rate cuts. An investment company sued Federal Reserve officials for closed - door policy meetings. The European Central Bank kept interest rates unchanged and listed "trade disputes" as a major source of policy uncertainty. The EU voted to impose counter - tariffs on US products worth 93 billion euros [3] Economic Data - The preliminary value of the US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI in July dropped to 49.5, the lowest since December 2024, while the preliminary values of the service and composite PMIs reached new highs since December 2024. The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week was 217,000, the lowest since mid - April [4]