国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：能源化工-20250725

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - The overall commodity market is affected by various factors, including geopolitical tensions, policy expectations, and supply - demand dynamics. Different commodities show different trends such as being strong, weak, or in a range - bound state [4][14]. - Geopolitical tensions in Russia and Ukraine have increased concerns about energy supply disruptions, which has an impact on the prices of commodities such as PX and crude oil [8]. - The "anti - involution" policy and supply - side optimization expectations drive the overall strength of commodities, but external risks such as the potential intensification of the trade war in August also need attention [38][46]. Summary by Commodity PX, PTA, MEG - PX: Supply - demand remains tight, with a recommendation of rolling long on spreads. The start - up rate of domestic plants has decreased, and the upcoming production of new PTA plants will increase demand [14]. - PTA: The raw material trend is strong as polyester inventory decreases, and there is a suggestion to focus on the spread of long PTA and short PF [4][14]. - MEG: The unilateral trend is strong, driven by the continuous rise in coal prices [4][14]. Rubber - Rubber is expected to oscillate. Although there are some changes in futures prices and trading volume, the overall market lacks a clear trend [15][16]. Synthetic Rubber - The price center of synthetic rubber is moving up. Short - term factors such as policy expectations, the strength of the rubber sector, and improved fundamentals support the price increase, but medium - term supply pressure may limit the upside [20][22]. Asphalt - Asphalt will fluctuate repeatedly. The production and inventory of asphalt have decreased, and the market is affected by oil prices and supply - demand relationships [23][24][36]. LLDPE - LLDPE will move in a range. The supply pressure is increasing, while the demand support is weak, and the market is also affected by macro - factors [37][38]. PP - PP's spot price will oscillate with light trading. The futures market has limited impact on the spot, and downstream demand is insufficient [41][42]. Caustic Soda - The rebound of caustic soda is difficult to sustain. Although there is short - term positive sentiment, the supply pressure will increase, and it is currently in the off - season of demand [44][46]. Pulp - Pulp will oscillate. The supply - demand fundamentals are in a stalemate, with high inventory on the supply side and weak demand on the downstream side [49][51][53]. Glass - The price of glass raw sheets is stable. The futures price has declined, and the spot market is relatively active due to the influence of the futures and price increase notices [55][56]. Methanol - Methanol is expected to run strongly. The spot price is rising, and short - term fundamentals are neutral, with support from rigid demand and supply contraction [58][61]. Urea - Urea will move in a range. The inventory of urea enterprises is decreasing, but the demand is weak, and it is also affected by policy expectations [63][65][66]. Styrene - Styrene is recommended as a short - position allocation. It is in a situation of high production, high profit, and high inventory, and the port inventory is accelerating the accumulation [67][68]. Soda Ash - The spot market of soda ash changes little. The supply is at a high level, and the downstream demand is stable, with the market expected to be stable and oscillating [69][71]. LPG - The external support for LPG is strengthening, and there is still room for the domestic market to recover. The prices of futures contracts are rising, and the operating rates of related industries are increasing [73]. PVC - The rebound of PVC is difficult to sustain. Although there is short - term market strength, the high - production and high - inventory structure is difficult to change, and the fundamentals are weak [83][84]. Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - The decline of fuel oil has slowed down, and it rebounded slightly at night. Low - sulfur fuel oil is weakly oscillating, and the price spread between high - and low - sulfur fuels in the external market is temporarily stable [88]. Container Shipping Index (European Line) - Hold the reverse spreads of 10 - 12 and 10 - 02. The futures prices of relevant contracts are changing, and different shipping price indices show different trends [90].