煤焦早报：焦煤增仓上行，焦炭现货提涨，短期注意回调风险-20250725

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a bullish rating for both coke and coking coal [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current market is mainly influenced by domestic macro - policies. The release of the Politburo meeting announcement and the expiration of overseas tariff extension on August 12 are important time nodes. The supply - side policies of traditional industries are emerging, and the expectation of infrastructure driving economic growth is strengthened. The market sentiment is high, and it should be treated with a bullish mindset in the short term, but also beware of callback risks if the market accelerates [4] - For coking coal, the resumption of mining operations is less than expected, while downstream replenishment enthusiasm is high. The inventory is continuously transferred from mines to downstream. For coke, the second - round price increase has been implemented, and the third - round is expected to be implemented soon. The demand for coke is strong, and the overall supply - demand gap is widening [4] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Coking Coal Supply and Demand - The resumption of mining operations is less than expected. The operating rate of 523 mines is 86.07% (+0.55), and the operating rate of 110 coal washing plants is 62.31% (-0.54). The production rate of 230 independent coking enterprises is 73.61% (+0.71) [2] Inventory - Upstream inventory is decreasing, and downstream inventory is increasing. The refined coal inventory of 523 mines is 339.07 million tons (-38.11), the refined coal inventory of coal washing plants is 191.54 million tons (-5.53), the inventory of 247 steel mills is 791.1 million tons (+8.17), the inventory of 230 coking enterprises is 790.19 million tons (+37.75), and the port inventory is 321.5 million tons (-0.14) [2] Spot Price and Spread - The price of Mongolian 5 coking coal is 1029 yuan/ton (+0), the active contract price is 1198.5 yuan/ton (+63), the basis is - 149.5 yuan/ton (-63), and the 9 - 1 monthly spread is - 66 yuan/ton (-6) [1] Coke Supply and Demand - The demand has increased more than expected, and the supply - demand gap has widened. The production rate of 230 independent coking enterprises is 73.61% (+0.71), the capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills is 90.89% (+0.99), and the daily average pig iron output is 242.44 million tons (+2.63) [3] Inventory - Upstream inventory is decreasing, and downstream inventory is increasing. The inventory of 230 coking enterprises is 55.55 million tons (-4.03), the inventory of 247 steel mills is 638.99 million tons (+1.19), and the port inventory is 199.11 million tons (-0.97) [3] Spot Price, Spread and Profit - The price of quasi - first - grade coke at Tianjin Port is 1320 yuan/ton (+0), the active contract price is 1735 yuan/ton (+27.5), the basis is - 316 yuan/ton (-27.5), and the 9 - 1 monthly spread is - 50.5 yuan/ton (-15). The second - round price increase has been implemented, and the third - round is expected to be implemented soon [3] Strategy Recommendations - In general, take a bullish approach in the short term, but beware of callback risks if the market accelerates. For coking coal, the resumption of mining operations is less than expected, and downstream replenishment is active. For coke, the second - round price increase has been implemented, and the third - round is expected to be implemented soon. If steel prices continue to rise, the industrial chain profit is expected to be transmitted upstream [4]