Huachuang Securities·2025-07-25 05:01Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for China Biopharmaceutical (01177.HK) with a target price of HKD 9.35, compared to the current price of HKD 6.71 [3][11]. Core Views - The company is expected to see a continuous increase in the proportion of innovative drugs, leading to a potential revaluation of its value [6][11]. - The company has a robust pipeline with over 90 innovative molecules in development, indicating significant growth potential [40][46]. - The transition from generic to innovative products is anticipated to enhance the company's revenue structure, with innovative product revenue expected to exceed 50% by 2025 and 60% by 2027 [9][11]. Financial Summary - Total revenue projections for 2024A, 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E are HKD 28,866 million, HKD 34,062 million, HKD 36,602 million, and HKD 39,674 million respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 50.1%, 12.3%, 9.1%, and 10.6% [2]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be HKD 3,500 million, HKD 3,932 million, HKD 4,288 million, and HKD 4,743 million for the same years, with corresponding growth rates of 50.1%, 12.3%, 9.1%, and 10.6% [2]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) is expected to increase from HKD 0.19 in 2024 to HKD 0.25 in 2027 [2]. Company Overview - China Biopharmaceutical is a leading innovative research and development-driven pharmaceutical group in China, with a history of being recognized among the top 50 global pharmaceutical companies [6][15]. - The company has successfully transitioned to a focus on innovation since 2018, increasing its number of innovative products from 3 to 18, including 9 innovative drugs [23][40]. - The company’s revenue from innovative products has significantly increased, from 12% in 2018 to 41.8% in 2024, with plans to further increase this proportion in the coming years [9][25]. Pipeline and Product Development - The company has a rich pipeline with over 90 innovative molecules, with plans to launch an average of 5 innovative products annually over the next three years [40][41]. - The company’s innovative products are expected to have global competitiveness, with a focus on areas such as oncology, respiratory diseases, liver diseases, and pain management [10][40]. - The company aims to establish out-licensing as a key strategic goal starting in 2025, which is expected to become a recurring source of income and profit [10][46].