Group 1: Black Industry - Iron ore: Recent trading focuses on "anti-involution + stable growth", with the black market sentiment boosted. The global iron ore shipment volume is 3109.1 tons, a week-on-week increase of 122.0 tons. In the medium to long term, the supply will gradually recover, demand will be relatively low, and port inventories will enter the accumulation phase. It is expected to follow the trend of finished products, with support around 800 yuan/ton [2]. - Coking coal and coke: The expectation of anti-involution policies is fermenting, and the supply-side expectation is rising. After the second price increase, the cost of coke still faces pressure, and the market's bullish expectation is strengthening. It is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [2]. - Rebar: The "anti-involution" has triggered a rise in bullish sentiment on the supply side. In the off-season, the demand for building materials has declined month-on-month, and the profit of five major steel products is acceptable. The supply-demand contradiction is not prominent. In the short term, it is supported by the macro and policy aspects [2]. - Glass: The "anti-involution" trading may continue. The demand side shows that the deep-processing orders for glass have weakened slightly month-on-month, but the speculative demand is strong. The supply side is expected to increase production, and there is still pressure. In the long term, the demand for glass is difficult to rebound significantly [2]. Group 2: Financial Industry - Stock index futures/options: The market's upward momentum has weakened, and risk appetite has decreased. It is recommended to reduce long positions in stock indices [4]. - Treasury bonds: The yield of the 10-year Treasury bond has risen by 3bps, and the market interest rate has consolidated. Treasury bonds have rebounded slightly, and it is recommended to hold long positions lightly [4]. - Gold: In the context of a high-interest rate environment and global restructuring, the pricing mechanism of gold is shifting from the traditional focus on real interest rates to central bank gold purchases. In the short term, it is expected to fluctuate mainly [4]. Group 3: Light Industry - Pulp: The spot market price was stable in the previous trading day. The cost price decline weakens the support for pulp prices. The pulp fundamentals show a pattern of weak supply and demand, and it is expected to fluctuate mostly [6]. - Logs: The average daily shipment volume of logs at the port last week was 62,400 cubic meters, a week-on-week increase of 3,600 cubic meters. The cost-side support has increased. In the short term, the supply pressure is not significant, and the price will fluctuate mainly [6]. Group 4: Oil, Fat, and Feed Industry - Oils: The production of Malaysian palm oil in June decreased by 4.5% month-on-month, while the inventory increased to 2.03 million tons. The supply of three major oils is abundant, and it is in the off-season of demand. After the previous rise, it may correct in the short term [6]. - Meals: The estimated production of US soybeans has been lowered, but the increase in the end-of-year inventory has exceeded expectations. The consumption expectation of US soybean crushing is driven by the favorable biofuel policy, which supports the futures price of US soybeans. After the previous rise, it may fluctuate and correct in the short term [6]. - Soybean No. 2: The cost and export expectations boost US soybeans, but the supply in South America is still continuing. The domestic soybean supply is abundant, and it may fluctuate and correct in the short term [6]. Group 5: Agricultural Products Industry - Live pigs: The average trading weight of live pigs continues to decline. The average settlement price of live pigs in key slaughtering enterprises has risen slightly. The opening rate of slaughtering enterprises has declined. In the future, the average weekly price of live pigs may decline month-on-month [8]. Group 6: Soft Commodities Industry - Rubber: The raw material supply in the natural rubber production areas is tight, and the acquisition price has generally increased. The capacity utilization rate of the tire industry has increased structurally. The inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao Port is expected to continue to decline slightly, and the rubber price is expected to maintain a wide-range fluctuating trend [10]. - PX: Under the negative impact of supply-demand and geopolitical factors, oil prices continue to be under pressure. In the short term, the compression space of the PXN spread is not large, and the PX price fluctuates with oil prices [10]. - PTA: The cost side fluctuates, the overall supply of PTA has increased, and the load of downstream polyester factories has decreased slightly. In the medium term, the supply-demand of PTA weakens. In the short term, the price mainly fluctuates with the cost [10]. - MEG: Recently, the arrival volume of MEG has been small, and the port inventory has decreased slightly. In the short term, the cost side has recovered, the supply-demand has improved, and the MEG market fluctuates strongly [10]. - PR: The commodity sentiment has returned to rationality, the raw material support is average, and the polyester bottle chip market may fluctuate horizontally [10]. - PF: Factors such as weak upper and lower support and increased supply pressure of polyester staple fiber may re-dominate the market. Without new positive boosts, the polyester staple fiber market is expected to fluctuate weakly [10].
新世纪期货交易提示（2025-7-25）-20250725
Xin Shi Ji Qi Huo·2025-07-25 05:01