尿素早评：短期政策预期大于基本面影响-20250725

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View In the short - term, policy expectations have a greater impact on coal and coal - chemical industries than fundamentals. It is recommended to wait and see for now. The supply pressure of urea remains high, with daily production close to 200,000 tons. Although 7 - month top - dressing demand supports prices, if domestic agricultural demand weakens and export demand doesn't supplement, urea prices will face significant downward pressure [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Changes - Urea futures prices: UR01 closed at 1796 yuan/ton on July 24, up 0.96% from July 23; UR05 was 1804 yuan/ton, up 0.61%; UR09 was 1785 yuan/ton, up 0.68% [1]. - Domestic spot prices: In most regions, prices decreased. For example, in Shandong, it dropped from 1830 yuan/ton to 1810 yuan/ton, a 1.09% decline; in Henan, it fell from 1850 yuan/ton to 1830 yuan/ton, a 1.08% decline [1]. - Upstream costs: The prices of anthracite coal in Henan and Shanxi remained unchanged at 1000 yuan/ton and 820 yuan/ton respectively [1]. - Downstream prices: The prices of compound fertilizer (45%S) and melamine in various regions remained stable [1]. 3.2 Basis and Spread - Basis: The basis of Shandong spot - UR decreased from 37 yuan/ton to 6 yuan/ton, a decrease of 31 yuan/ton [1]. - Spread: The 01 - 05 spread increased from - 14 yuan/ton to - 8 yuan/ton, an increase of 6 yuan/ton [1]. 3.3 Important Information On the previous trading day, the opening price of the urea futures main contract 2509 was 1775 yuan/ton, the highest was 1796 yuan/ton, the lowest was 1768 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1785 yuan/ton, and the settlement price was 1782 yuan/ton. The position volume was 173,791 lots [1]. 3.4 Fundamental Situation - Supply: Urea supply pressure is high, with daily production close to 200,000 tons, and enterprise inventory is slightly decreasing, mainly due to increased port collection. Upstream enterprise inventory is still around 750,000 tons [1]. - Demand: The top - dressing demand in July supports prices, but if domestic agricultural demand weakens and export demand is insufficient, prices will face downward pressure [1].