甲醇日评：短期政策预期大于基本面影响-20250725

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating [1] Core View of the Report - The fundamental outlook for methanol is weak, but short - term policy expectations have a greater impact than the fundamentals. It is recommended to wait and see for now. The methanol valuation is relatively high, and the anti - involution policy may have limited impact on methanol production. The port inventory is likely to continue to increase, putting pressure on the spot price in East China [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Price Changes - Methanol Futures Prices: MA01 rose from 2497 yuan/ton to 2550 yuan/ton, a 2.12% increase; MA05 rose from 2428 yuan/ton to 2473 yuan/ton, a 1.85% increase; MA09 rose from 2411 yuan/ton to 2480 yuan/ton, a 2.86% increase [1] - Methanol Spot Prices: Prices in most regions increased slightly, with the largest increase in the MA09 futures price. The price in Sichuan - Chongqing, Hubei, and Inner Mongolia remained unchanged [1] - Coal Spot Prices: The price of Buhuos Q5500 increased by 0.56%, and the price of Yulin Q6000 increased by 1.48%, while the price of Datong Q5500 remained unchanged [1] - Industrial Natural Gas Prices: Prices in Hohhot and Chongqing remained unchanged [1] 2. Profit Situation - Methanol Production Profits: Coal - based methanol and natural - gas - based methanol profits remained unchanged. The profit of Northwest MTO remained unchanged, while the profit of East China MTO decreased by 19.88% [1] - Methanol Downstream Profits: The profit of MTBE increased by 20.83%, the profit of formaldehyde increased by 3.73%, the profit of acetic acid decreased by 11.23% [1] 3. Important Information - Domestic Information: The main methanol contract MA2509 fluctuated and rose, with increased trading volume and decreased positions. All contracts had transactions during the trading day [1] - Foreign Information: A 1 - million - ton methanol plant in a Middle - Eastern country is shut down, and multiple plants are operating at a fixed load. The loading speed at the port is expected to increase in mid - to - late July compared to early July [1]