养殖油脂产业链日度策略报告-20250725

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report provides daily strategy recommendations for feed, breeding, and oil industries, including market analysis, support and resistance levels, and trading strategies for various commodities such as soybeans, palm oil, and livestock [3][4][5]. - It also presents data on import costs, inventory, and operating rates for these industries, as well as charts for tracking market fundamentals and option volatility [16][18][80]. Summary by Directory Part I: Sector Strategy Recommendations 1. Market Analysis - Oilseeds: Soybean No. 1 09 contract is expected to fluctuate strongly, while soybean No. 2 09 contract will adjust. Peanut 10 contract is likely to decline. Long positions in soybean oil 01 contract can be held [11]. - Oils: Rapeseed oil 09 contract will fluctuate within a range, and long positions can be taken at low levels. Palm oil 09 contract is expected to rise, and long positions should be held [11]. - Protein: Soybean meal 09 contract is expected to fall, and long positions should be closed. Rapeseed meal 09 contract will decline, and long positions should be exited [11]. - Energy and By - products: Corn 09 and starch 09 contracts will fluctuate, and short positions can be reduced at low levels [11]. - Livestock: Pig 09 contract will rebound, and long positions can be reduced at high levels. Egg 09 contract will bottom - hunt, and long positions can be taken at low levels [11]. 2. Commodity Arbitrage - For most cross - period and cross - variety arbitrage, the recommended strategy is to wait and see. However, for some, such as soybean meal 11 - 1, a positive spread strategy is recommended, and for pig 9 - 1 and egg 9 - 1, a positive spread strategy at low levels is suggested [12][13]. 3. Basis and Spot - Futures Strategies - The report provides spot prices, price changes, and basis information for various commodities in different sectors, including oilseeds, oils, protein, energy and by - products, and livestock [14]. Part II: Key Data Tracking Table 1. Oils and Oilseeds - Daily Data: It includes import cost data for soybeans from different origins and shipping dates, rapeseeds, and palm oil [16]. - Weekly Data: It shows inventory and operating rate data for beans, rapeseeds, palm oil, and peanuts [18]. 2. Feed - Daily Data: Import cost data for corn from Argentina and Brazil are provided [18]. - Weekly Data: Data on corn consumption, inventory, starch enterprise operating rate, and inventory are presented [19]. 3. Breeding - It provides daily and weekly data on the pig and egg markets, including prices, costs, profits, and inventory [20][22][24]. Part III: Fundamental Tracking Charts - Breeding End: Charts for tracking the closing prices of pig and egg futures contracts, as well as spot prices, are provided [25][29]. - Oils and Oilseeds: Charts for palm oil, soybean oil, and peanuts, including production, exports, inventory, and trading volume, are presented [34][47][54]. - Feed End: Charts for corn, corn starch, rapeseed meal, and soybean meal, including inventory, consumption, and processing profits, are shown [58][64][72]. Part IV: Option Situation for Soybean Meal, Feed, Breeding, and Oils - Charts for historical volatility of rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, soybean oil, palm oil, and peanuts, as well as option trading volume and open interest for corn, are provided [80]. Part V: Warehouse Receipt Situation for Feed, Breeding, and Oils - Charts for warehouse receipts of rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, soybean oil, palm oil, peanuts, corn, corn starch, pigs, and eggs are presented [83].