方正中期期货有色金属日度策略-20250725

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The non - ferrous metals sector generally rebounded last weekend and strengthened. The impact of trade negotiations and tariffs has temporarily eased, and the market is now focusing on changes in interest - rate cut expectations. China's anti - involution policies and expected major infrastructure projects are boosting the demand for industrial products, driving the non - ferrous metals sector to follow the upward trend, but the sustainability is average. The current rebound is regarded as a phased one, with short - term cautious bullish operations recommended, while avoiding over - chasing the rise [12][13]. Group 3: Summary by Section Part 1: Non - ferrous Metals Operation Logic and Investment Advice - Macro Logic: The non - ferrous metals sector rebounded, influenced by trade negotiations, interest - rate cut expectations, China's anti - involution policies, and large - scale infrastructure projects. The market is cautiously bullish in the short term, and attention should be paid to specific policies, individual supply - demand drivers, and leading varieties [12][13]. - Weekly Focus: Powell's speech, ECB interest - rate decision, European and US economic data, and China's LPR are the key points to watch this week [14]. - Variety Strategies - Copper: Social inventory is decreasing, supply is expected to tighten, and demand is likely to increase. It is expected to rebound, with a recommended strategy of buying on dips [3][15]. - Zinc: It is showing a phased upward trend, with increasing supply and moderate demand. Short - term bullish, medium - term bearish on rallies [4][15]. - Aluminum Industry Chain: Aluminum is in a volatile consolidation, alumina has a wide - range fluctuation, and cast aluminum alloy is also in consolidation. It is recommended to reduce long positions and wait and see [5][17]. - Tin: Fundamentals are weak, but it is rising due to external factors. Short - term bullish thinking, with attention to the mining end and macro factors [6][17]. - Lead: Supply is expected to increase, demand is recovering slowly, and it is in a volatile and weak state. A bearish - on - volatility strategy is recommended [7][18]. - Nickel: There is a phased rebound, but the long - term supply - demand situation is bearish. Short - term bullish, medium - term bearish on rallies [9][18]. - Stainless Steel: It is in a range - bound and relatively strong state, with a recommended high - selling and low - buying strategy [9][18]. Part 2: Non - ferrous Metals Market Review - Futures Closing Prices: Copper closed at 79,890 yuan/ton with a 0.38% increase; zinc at 23,015 yuan/ton with a 0.17% increase; aluminum at 20,760 yuan/ton with a 0.14% decrease; alumina at 3,427 yuan/ton with a 2.15% increase; tin at 273,950 yuan/ton with a 2.01% increase; lead at 16,890 yuan/ton with a 0.24% increase; nickel at 124,360 yuan/ton with a 0.80% increase; stainless steel at 12,935 yuan/ton with a 0.27% increase; and cast aluminum alloy at 20,135 yuan/ton with a 0.10% decrease [19]. Part 3: Non - ferrous Metals Position Analysis - Different non - ferrous metal futures contracts show varying net long - short positions and changes, affected by non - main - force funds or main - force position adjustments [21]. Part 4: Non - ferrous Metals Spot Market - Copper Spot: Yangtze River spot price is 79,900 yuan/ton with a 0.04% decrease; Wumaomao 1 average price is 79,755 yuan/ton with a 0.15% decrease [22]. - Zinc Spot: Yangtze River 0 zinc average price is 22,860 yuan/ton with a 0.13% increase; Yangtze River 1 zinc is 22,760 yuan/ton with a 0.13% increase [22]. - Aluminum Spot: Yangtze River average price is 20,720 yuan/ton with a 0.67% decrease; Nanchu Foshan A00 aluminum ingot average price is 20,710 yuan/ton with a 0.53% decrease [22]. - Alumina Spot: Antai Ke national average price is 3,255 yuan/ton with a 0.31% increase; hydrated bauxite in Henan is 550 yuan/ton with no change [22]. Part 5: Non - ferrous Metals Industry Chain - The report provides various charts related to the industry chain of copper, zinc, aluminum, alumina, tin, lead, nickel, and stainless steel, including inventory changes, processing fees, and price trends [25][30][32]. Part 6: Non - ferrous Metals Arbitrage - The report presents multiple charts for different non - ferrous metals, such as copper, zinc, aluminum, alumina, tin, lead, nickel, and stainless steel, to analyze their arbitrage opportunities, including ratio changes, basis, and spread trends [56][60][62]. Part 7: Non - ferrous Metals Options - The report includes charts on option historical volatility, weighted implied volatility, trading volume, and position changes for copper, zinc, and aluminum, providing references for option trading [76][78][81].