“反内卷”下，哪些煤炭个股值得关注（一）

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is optimistic [2][24]. Core Viewpoints - The "anti-involution" sentiment is still present, with the coal industry experiencing fluctuations and a recent increase of 1.65% on July 24 [5][6]. - The report highlights the potential for a rebound in the coal market, similar to the 2016 supply-side reform, with the possibility of a price surge in the near future [5][7]. - Key stocks to watch include stable companies like Jinkong Coal Industry and Shaanxi Coal Industry, as well as elastic companies like Shanmei International and Hengyuan Coal Power [21][22]. Summary by Sections Coal Market Dynamics - The report discusses the historical trends of coal prices and indices, noting that after the supply-side reforms in 2016, coal prices significantly increased due to reduced supply and stable demand [7][11]. - The current "anti-involution" sentiment is seen as a 2.0 version of supply-side reform, suggesting a potential price increase in the coal index [7][21]. Company Analysis - The report analyzes 18 coal companies, indicating that most are small to mid-cap, with major players being China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and Zhongmei Energy [12][14]. - Recent mergers and acquisitions are noted, aligning with national strategies to optimize industry structure and enhance competitiveness [13][14]. Financial Metrics - The report provides insights into inventory levels and capacity utilization, indicating that companies like Jinkong Coal Industry and Shaanxi Coal have high inventory growth rates but also high asset turnover ratios [15][16]. - Most companies maintain a debt-to-asset ratio below 60%, with several companies showing improved asset quality and profitability [17][18]. Valuation and Dividend Capacity - The report highlights that companies like Anyuan Coal Industry and New Dazhou A have high price-to-book (PB) ratios, indicating they are at their highest valuation levels in five years [19][20]. - Dividend stability is emphasized, with companies like China Shenhua and Hengyuan Coal Power maintaining high dividend payout ratios [19][20]. Notable Stocks - The report identifies Jinkong Coal Industry and Shaanxi Coal Industry as stable investment options, while Shanmei International and Hengyuan Coal Power are noted for their elasticity and potential for growth [21][22][23].