政治局会议专题：7月政治局会议前瞻

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The macro - policy tone is expected to continue the characteristics of expansionary neutrality. The demands for stabilizing growth, expanding domestic demand, and stabilizing expectations remain. The meeting may emphasize policy continuity, and the necessity of strong stimulus may decline. It will also use the current window period to accelerate structural adjustment and industrial reform [1][15]. - Different policy areas may have various focuses, including "anti - involution" policies, fiscal policies, monetary policies, real estate policies, and consumption policies [16]. - After the July Politburo meeting, the bond market interest rates often show a trend of first falling and then rising, but the specific trend depends on the macro - economic situation and policy paradigm evolution [26]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. 7 - month Politburo Meeting Preview - Economic Situation: In the first half of 2025, China's GDP grew by 5.3% year - on - year, showing resilience. However, there are still economic pressures such as insufficient effective demand, a weak real estate market, low - level prices, and external uncertainties [14]. - Policy Focuses - "Anti - involution" Policy: Due to over - expansion of production capacity in some industries and price wars, the PPI has been negative for 33 consecutive months. The July Politburo meeting may focus on this policy to promote domestic structural adjustment, optimize supply, and prevent risks [16]. - Fiscal Policy: Considering the easing of Sino - US tariff games and the 5.3% GDP growth in the first half, it is expected to continue the tone of the April meeting, emphasizing the issuance and use of local government special bonds and ultra - long - term special treasury bonds. Attention should be paid to new policy - based financial instruments [18]. - Monetary Policy: It is expected to maintain a "moderately loose" tone, providing sufficient liquidity and coordinating with fiscal policies. The probability of an interest - rate cut in the short term may be low, and attention should be paid to the expansion of structural monetary policy tools [20]. - Real Estate Policy: In the first half of the year, real estate sales and investment were weak. In the second half, loose policies may be expected, focusing on releasing demand (such as lowering provident fund loan interest rates and relaxing purchase restrictions in core cities) and optimizing supply (such as improving the acquisition policy of existing commercial housing and financing mechanisms) [21][22]. - Consumption Policy: The contribution rate of domestic demand to economic growth has been increasing. The July Politburo meeting may continue to emphasize the importance of expanding domestic demand and promoting consumption. In the second half, consumption policies may continue to exert force, such as implementing "two new" policies, developing service consumption, and increasing the income of low - and middle - income groups [23]. - Bond Market Performance: After the July Politburo meeting, bond market interest rates often show a trend of first falling and then rising. From 2013 - 2024, on T + 5 days, the average 1 - year treasury bond interest rate decreased by 4BP, and the 10 - year treasury bond interest rate decreased by 1BP; on T + 30 days, the average 1 - year treasury bond interest rate increased by 4BP, and the 10 - year treasury bond interest rate increased by 1BP [26]. 2. 2024: Policy Tone Continues Positive Orientation, Bond Market Maintains Volatility - Policy: The meeting proposed that macro - policies should "continue to exert force and be more effective", emphasizing policy continuity. Fiscal policies focused on accelerating the issuance and use of special bonds and using ultra - long - term special treasury bonds; monetary policies aimed to increase support for the real economy [28][30]. - Bond Market: After the meeting, on T + 30 days, the 1Y and 10Y treasury bond yields increased by 6BP and 2BP respectively [28]. 3. 2022: Policy Intensity Slows Down, Economic Targets are Weakened, Interest Rates Decline - Policy: Compared with the April meeting, the judgment of economic downward pressure was alleviated. The meeting no longer emphasized achieving the annual economic growth target. Fiscal policies focused on using local government special bond funds, and monetary policies focused on implementing existing policies [35][37]. - Bond Market: After the meeting, on T + 30 days, bond market interest rates were in a downward trend, especially after the central bank unexpectedly cut OMO and MLF interest rates by 10BP in August [35]. 4. 2021: Policy Shifts from Structural Adjustment to Growth Stabilization, Bond Market Consolidates in a Range - Policy: The economic situation judgment changed, and the task of "stabilizing growth" took precedence over "structural adjustment". Fiscal policies were more proactive, accelerating local government bond issuance. Monetary policies focused on supporting small and medium - sized enterprises and difficult industries [42][49]. - Bond Market: After the meeting, the 10 - year treasury bond yield showed a trend of first falling and then rising, and the short - end yield had a larger callback amplitude in the third quarter [52].