光大期货能化商品日报-20250725

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - All the analyzed energy - chemical products are rated as "Oscillating" [1][3][5][7][9] 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall energy - chemical market shows an oscillating trend. Geopolitical factors and supply - demand relationships are the main drivers of price fluctuations in various products. For example, geopolitical tensions affect oil prices, and supply changes impact the prices of fuel oil, asphalt, and other products [1][3][5] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views 3.1.1 Crude Oil - On Thursday, oil prices moved up. WTI September contract rose by $0.78 to $66.03 per barrel (1.20% increase), Brent September contract rose by $0.67 to $69.18 per barrel (0.98% increase), and SC2509 closed at 507.1 yuan/barrel, up 2.8 yuan/barrel (0.56% increase). Geopolitical tensions persist. New regulations have halted oil exports from Kazakhstan through a consortium in the Russian Black Sea ports. The spot price of Labuan crude for September loading has climbed. Currently, oil prices are oscillating weakly, but geopolitical factors may increase price volatility. Attention should be paid to the implementation of US tariffs next week and OPEC+ production guidance [1] 3.1.2 Fuel Oil - On Thursday, the main fuel oil contract FU2509 on the Shanghai Futures Exchange remained flat at 2879 yuan/ton, and the low - sulfur fuel oil contract LU2510 rose 0.59% to 3588 yuan/ton. Singapore and Fujairah fuel oil inventories increased. The low - sulfur fuel oil market structure weakened, and the high - sulfur fuel oil market continued to face pressure. Traders expect the arrival volume from Europe in July to increase by 30 - 40 tons compared to the previous month. The LU - FU spread has narrowed, and it is advisable to hold the spread short position [3] 3.1.3 Asphalt - On Thursday, the main asphalt contract BU2509 on the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell 0.28% to 3602 yuan/ton. This week, domestic asphalt shipments increased slightly, and the capacity utilization rate of modified asphalt enterprises decreased slightly. In August, northern demand will be further released, and some refineries plan to increase production. However, refineries without crude oil quotas and those with maintenance plans will limit supply growth. The short - term unilateral driving force of the asphalt market is not obvious, and it mainly fluctuates with the cost of crude oil. Short - term long positions can be considered after oil prices stabilize [3][5] 3.1.4 Polyester - TA509 rose 1.38% to 4850 yuan/ton, EG2509 rose 1.1% to 4485 yuan/ton, and PX futures rose 1.4% to 6956 yuan/ton. Saudi MEG plants have restarted, and a Shanxi synthetic gas - to - ethylene glycol plant plans to shut down for maintenance. The domestic polyester load is about 88.7%, the PTA load is 79.7%, and the ethylene glycol start - up rate has increased. The macro - environment is positive for the industry, and the end - market shows resilience. EG prices are supported by cost and reduced inventory expectations, while TA prices follow cost fluctuations [5] 3.1.5 Rubber - On Thursday, the main rubber contracts RU2509, NR, and BR all rose. Thailand's natural rubber exports increased in the first half of the year. Domestic tire enterprise start - up rates were mixed. The conflict between Thailand and Cambodia has affected rubber tapping in the northeastern part of Thailand. Typhoon Webb has brought less rainfall, but the region is still rainy. Rubber prices have risen recently due to raw material support and the macro - environment, but chasing high prices should be cautious [7] 3.1.6 Methanol - On Thursday, methanol prices were in different ranges in different regions. Iranian plant loads have recovered, and arrivals have increased. Downstream profit has improved, and inventory is expected to continue to increase. The market anticipates a reduction in coal supply, and methanol prices are oscillating strongly [7][9] 3.1.7 Polyolefins - On Thursday, polyolefin prices were in a certain range, and production profits varied. Polyolefins will gradually move towards a situation of strong supply and demand, with no prominent fundamental contradictions. If the cost does not drop significantly, the downside space for polyolefins is limited [9] 3.1.8 Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC) - On Thursday, PVC prices in different regions showed different trends. Enterprise start - up rates have recovered, demand has not improved significantly, but the fundamentals have not deteriorated further. The basis and monthly spread have widened, and the short - term market expectation is strong. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines [9] 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis, basis rate, price changes, and historical quantile information of various energy - chemical products on July 24 and 23, including crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas, asphalt, etc. [10] 3.3 Market News - The market is concerned about trade negotiations. The US and Japan have reached a tariff agreement, and the US and the EU are moving towards a trade agreement. EIA data shows that last week, US crude oil and gasoline inventories decreased more than expected [12] 3.4 Chart Analysis 3.4.1 Main Contract Price - The report presents the closing price charts of the main contracts of various energy - chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. [14][16][18] 3.4.2 Main Contract Basis - The report shows the basis charts of the main contracts of various products, such as the basis of crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. [32][34][38] 3.4.3 Inter - period Contract Spread - The report provides the spread charts between different contracts of various products, such as the spread between fuel oil contracts 01 - 05, 09 - 01, etc. [47][49][52] 3.4.4 Inter - variety Spread - The report shows the spread and ratio charts between different varieties, such as the spread between crude oil's internal and external markets, the spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. [63][65][69] 3.4.5 Production Profit - The report presents the production profit charts of some products, such as the cash flow of ethylene - based ethylene glycol production and PP production profit [72][74][76]