光大期货碳酸锂日报-20250725

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - On July 24, 2025, the lithium carbonate futures 2509 contract rose 7.21% to 76,680 yuan/ton. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 100 yuan/ton to 70,550 yuan/ton, the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased by 100 yuan/ton to 68,900 yuan/ton, and the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) rose 700 yuan/ton to 60,520 yuan/ton. The warehouse receipt inventory increased by 665 tons to 10,754 tons [3]. - On July 23, 2025, Argentina's economy minister announced that the RIGI evaluation committee rejected Ganfeng's application for the Mariana salt lake project. In June 2025, the Port of Port Hedland in Australia shipped 92,740 tons of spodumene concentrate to China, a month - on - month decrease of 17.62% and a year - on - year decrease of 52.54%. It also shipped 17,200 tons to Indonesia and 14,500 tons to South Korea [3]. - In terms of supply, the production in July is expected to increase 3.9% month - on - month to 81,150 tons, and the weekly production decreased by 485 tons to 18,630 tons. In June 2025, China's lithium carbonate imports were 17,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 16.3% and a year - on - year decrease of 9.6%. In terms of demand, the production schedule in July increased slightly month - on - month, and the consumption of lithium carbonate by the two major main materials increased by 3% month - on - month to about 80,800 tons. In terms of inventory, the weekly inventory increased by 550 tons to 143,170 tons [3]. - The price increased with increasing positions yesterday, and the news continued to ferment. Fundamentally, the supply and demand in July are in a tight balance, and the lithium ore price remains relatively strong, providing marginal support for the lithium price. However, the short - term core contradiction still focuses on the low warehouse receipt inventory and concerns about mine exploitation. Currently, the continuous small - scale return of warehouse receipt inventory may ease the situation, and investors are advised to be cautious about chasing high prices [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Data Monitoring - Futures: The closing price of the main contract was N/A, and the previous day was 69,380 yuan/ton; the closing price of the continuous contract was N/A, and the previous day was 69,320 yuan/ton. The price of spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) increased by 14 dollars/ton to 764 dollars/ton [5]. - Lithium ore: The prices of various types of lithium mica and phospho - lithium - aluminum stone all increased to varying degrees. For example, the price of lithium mica (Li2O: 1.5% - 2.0%) increased by 40 yuan/ton to 1,080 yuan/ton [5]. - Lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide: The prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, as well as different types of lithium hydroxide, all increased. For example, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5% battery - grade/ domestic) increased by 100 yuan/ton to 70,550 yuan/ton [5]. - Other products: The price of hexafluorophosphate lithium increased by 500 yuan/ton to 51,500 yuan/ton. The prices of some ternary precursors and cathode materials also increased slightly [5]. 3.2 Chart Analysis - Ore prices: Charts show the price trends of lithium ore such as spodumene concentrate, lithium mica, and phospho - lithium - aluminum stone from 2024 to 2025 [6][7][8]. - Lithium and lithium salt prices: Charts display the price trends of metal lithium, battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, lithium hydroxide, and hexafluorophosphate lithium from 2024 to 2025 [9][10][11]. - Spreads: Charts present the spreads between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, etc., from 2024 to 2025 [16][17][19]. - Precursor & cathode materials: Charts show the price trends of ternary precursors, ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, lithium manganate, and lithium cobaltate from 2024 to 2025 [21][22][24]. - Lithium battery prices: Charts display the price trends of 523 square ternary cells, square lithium iron phosphate cells, cobalt - acid lithium cells, and square lithium iron phosphate batteries from 2024 to 2025 [30][31][32]. - Inventory: Charts show the inventory trends of downstream, smelters, and other links from November 2024 to July 2025 [35][36][37]. - Production cost: The chart shows the production profit trends of lithium carbonate from different raw materials such as purchased ternary pole piece black powder, lithium iron phosphate pole piece black powder, lithium mica concentrate, and spodumene concentrate from 2024 to 2025 [39][40]