光大期货金融期货日报-20250725

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Stock Index: Neutral (Expected to fluctuate) [1] - Treasury Bonds: Bearish [3] 2. Core Views of the Report - The Ya鲁藏布江下游 hydropower project started, driving the infrastructure and building materials sectors up. The economic and financial data in June showed that the demand disturbance persisted and investment continued to decline. The central government is stimulating the economy through investment, which may bring incremental funds in the short - term, but the long - term effect remains to be seen. Overseas, the Fed's rate - cut expectation has slowed down. The index is expected to fluctuate mainly, as the current contradictions are credit contraction and insufficient demand, but the corporate earnings in the first half of 2025 improved compared to 2024 [1]. - Treasury bond futures closed down. The central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations with a net withdrawal of funds. The economic data showed resilience, and the short - term rate - cut expectation was low. The stock - bond seesaw effect was obvious, and treasury bonds are expected to run bearishly in the short - term [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Research Views - Stock Index: The Ya鲁藏布江 downstream hydropower project with an investment of about 1.2 trillion yuan drove the infrastructure and building materials sectors up. In June, GDP grew 5.2% year - on - year, retail sales increased 4.8%, industrial added value rose 6.8%, and fixed - asset investment accumulated 2.8%. Real estate development investment decreased 11.2%. M1 showed good performance, and corporate short - term loans increased significantly. The central government is stimulating the economy through investment. Overseas, the Fed's rate - cut expectation slowed down. The index is expected to fluctuate as the current contradictions are credit contraction and insufficient demand, but corporate earnings improved in H1 2025 [1]. - Treasury Bonds: Treasury bond futures closed down. The central bank conducted 3310 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations with a net withdrawal of 1195 billion yuan. The DR001 and DR007 rates increased. The economic data showed resilience, and the short - term rate - cut expectation was low. The stock - bond seesaw effect was obvious, and treasury bonds are expected to run bearishly in the short - term [3] Daily Price Changes - Stock Index Futures: On July 24, 2025, IH rose 0.49%, IF rose 0.78%, IC rose 1.73%, and IM rose 1.82% compared to July 23 [4]. - Stock Indexes: On July 24, 2025, the Shanghai Composite 50 rose 0.40%, the CSI 300 rose 0.71%, the CSI 500 rose 1.56%, and the CSI 1000 rose 1.42% compared to July 23 [4]. - Treasury Bond Futures: On July 24, 2025, TS fell 0.07%, TF fell 0.19%, T fell 0.28%, and TL fell 0.86% compared to July 23 [4] Market News - The People's Bank of China and the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs issued the "Opinions on Strengthening Financial Services for Rural Reform and Promoting Comprehensive Rural Revitalization", proposing to increase financial resource input in key areas of rural revitalization [5][6] Chart Analysis - Stock Index Futures: There are charts showing the trends of IH, IF, IM, IC main contracts and their respective basis trends from 2024 - 01 to 2025 - 07 [8][9][12] - Treasury Bond Futures: There are charts showing the trends of treasury bond futures main contracts, treasury bond spot yields, basis, inter - term spreads, cross - variety spreads, and capital interest rates from 2023 - 07 to 2025 - 07 [15][18][20] - Exchange Rates: There are charts showing the central parity rates of the US dollar, euro against the RMB, forward exchange rates, and exchange rates of the US dollar index, euro against the US dollar, pound against the US dollar, and US dollar against the Japanese yen from 2023 - 01 to 2025 - 07 [23][24][27] Member Introduction - Zhu Jintao, a master of economics from Jilin University, is the director of the macro - financial research department at Everbright Futures Research Institute [31]. - Wang Dongying, an index analyst with a master's degree from Columbia University, mainly tracks stock index futures, responsible for macro - fundamental quantification, key industry research, index financial report analysis, and market capital tracking [31]